Why the shutting down in Wuhan is successful?

https://jasmine-action.blogspot.com/2020/04/why-shutting-down-in-wuhan-is-successful.html

Seth Abramson @SethAbramson：(THREAD) I teach communications and journalism at the university level. My published curatorial journalism relies exclusively on information from experts. Right now our medical experts are confusing America on some basic COVID-19 points. I'm going to try to help. Please RETWEET.

https://twitter.com/LiuGang8964/status/1251300765332897794

刘刚 @LiuGang8964：We need to think about why the shutting down of Wuhan by 60 days can be successfully to stop the spreading of COVID19, whereas Italy, Spain, and NYC couldn't stop it even shutting down for 60 days.

It is very different between the shutting down of Wuhan and NYC.

Wuhan's shutdown is strict and complete. They assume all residents as COVID19 infected, and forced each family to live alone, and no one is allowed to go outside of their own home for at least 30 days. Government agencies would distribute foods and other necessities to each home.

Wuhan doesn't need to do COVID19 tests for each of their residents, they just simply assume everyone got COVID19 infected first.

We know that the Incubation period of COVID19 would be within 30 days.

After 30 days of such kind strict isolation (shut down), people with COVID19 positive would have been symptoms and would be sent to hospital, whereas people without COVID19 symptoms would show up as healthy.

Then, Wuhan can have COVID19 positive and negative completely separated, without any testing or detection. Wuhan can have all of the COVID19 infected people separated and sent them to hospital.

Compared with the shutdown of Wuhan, the shutdown in NYC/Italy/Spain is soft and incomplete—residents can go out for shopping, exercising, walk for dogs! When people go out for shopping/exercising, it has very large probability for them to be infected or transmit COVID to others.

Then the soft shutdown in NYC can never separate the COVID19 positive from negative, because the COVID19 virus is still transmitting from person to person while they go out for shopping/walking! It can only slow down the transmitting speed.

To separate the COVID positive from negative, you have to do a complete test for all people, which is a mission impossible, even if it is possible, you still don't know people tested negative today may become positive tomorrow!


SoV @shieldofvalour Apr 20: Whataboutism? Whoever adversely affected by that action would be entitled to seek compensation and justice against whoever regarded responsible and accountable. There were public debate, condemnation and wide coverage of what happened without being censored by the state.

@LiuGang8964: We agree that both China and USA have covered up their numbers of COVID19 confirmed cases and deaths.

I care only the death toll and the cover up in USA rather than those numbers in China, just like I really don't care the death toll on Mars.

The major cover up in USA is short of testing. USA did COVID19 test roughly about less than 100 before March. What if 10,000 people get infected each day at that time?

China also did less test. However, China treated assumed all people infected and they were all isolated.

After one/two months shutdown or lock down, China can split all of the infected from healthy without any test! Just because all the infected people would either have shown COVID19 Symptoms or have immunity against COVID19.

Then, China can simply assume that all people without COVID19 symptoms are healthy and will not transmit corona virus, and can safely alow them to go to work, while all the people with COVID19 symptoms would be hospitalized or stay home.

You got it?

However, the shutdown in NYC and other cities in USA couldn't have all the COVID19 infected people split from the healthy people even they shutdown for 1 year, because the shutdown in NYC is too soft, people can go out for shopping/walking dogs/exercising.

People can spread/transmit COVID19 when they do shopping/walking dogs/exercising. So, after one month soft shutdown, you can't assume that all people without COVID19 symptoms are healthy, because they might have got infected during their shopping/walking dogs/exercising time.

Yi @schotpot: U forgot a key factor: sterilize your groceries after they are delivered to your front door.

Gang Liu
4/17/2020