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Monday, May 13, 2019

川普提高关税对中美两国经济的影响

本文网址:https://jasmine-action.blogspot.com/2019/05/blog-post.html

川普提高关税25%,将会对中美两国的经济产生如下影响:
1. 中美两国的贸易总额从7000亿美元下降到4900亿美元;
2. 中国的GDP损失高达1.8%,美国的GDP损失仅仅是1.1%;
3. 中国继续出口到美国的产品在美国市场的销售价格提高25%。

下面是我在前几天里几篇推特集锦,见链接:

https://twitter.com/LiuGang8964/status/1127043773358321670

川普将2000亿美元的中国商品关税上调至了25%。这是一个非常含混不清的说法。

这里所说的2000亿美元的中国商品自然是指从中国出口到美国的产品,而且应该是过去的进口产品,最多是已经签合同的期货产品。

对已经发生的2000亿美元的中国出口到美国的产品,川普无法增税。


对那些已经按照旧关税签合同的产品,川普如果强行增加关税,这属于合同违约,中方可以停止出口这些产品,於是,川普也是无法增加关税。

川普如果要增加关税,只能是对以后由中国出口到美国的产品增加关税。但是,川普将关税增加到25%后,中国的出口商就要相应地减少甚至终止这些产品的出口,


关税增加后,从中国向美国出口的产品总额要大幅度减少,就根本不存在什么2000亿美元的从中国向美国出口的产品了。

川普打贸易战,也是信口胡诌。很多人跟着瞎起哄。

关税增加后,如果中国政府对出口产品不进行补贴,最后这些产品在美国的均衡销售价格就比原来的价格增加了25%。

川普增加进口关税率的后果将是:
1. 从中国进口的产品大幅度减少,使得最后在美国的落地价格增加了25%;
2. 川普所课征的关税,实际上是转嫁到美国缴费者头上,由美国消费者买单。
3. 中国方面的损失是出口数额减少,但双方的进出口贸易额都减少,中美双方均减少了因进出口贸易所带来的额外利益。


提高关税对美国产品价格的影响

三天前我就说,川普对从中国进口的产品提高关税,最后要由美国的进出口商和消费者买单。可是,直到今天,川普还在说这些关税将由中国政府和中国公司来买单。

不妨用一个简单例子来说明川普提高关税对产品销售价格的影响。

假设中国向美国出口耐克鞋,有温州厂家生产耐克鞋的出厂价是100美元,

而在上海的厂家生产耐克鞋的出厂价是120美元。假设美国的进出口商在进出口时赚得的最低利润是10%。在没有关税时,这两个厂家生产的耐克鞋在美国市场的价格将分别是110美元和132美元。那么,中国生产的这种耐克鞋在美国的价格是在110美元到132美元之间。

当关税增加到25%后,同样的这款鞋,在美国市场的价格范围将变成135 - 162美元之间。假设美国消费者对这款鞋可以接受的价格是140美元,那么,最后的结果就是上海生产的耐克鞋将不能出口美国,温州生产的耐克鞋出口到美国后由无关税时的110美元增加到135美元。这额外增加的25美元,当然是由消费者来承担


由于上海生产的这款鞋无法向美国出口,这导致中国向美国出口的耐克鞋总数将减少,而且,温州生产的耐克鞋向美国出口的数量也会减少。这可能会导致上海的耐克鞋生产厂家倒闭、工人失业。

由于美国对越南、印度等国不征收惩罚性关税,这些国家生产的鞋的成本即便是比中国的成本高出25%,也能向美国出口


中国监狱劳改犯生产的产品通常都会很便宜,那是因为生产者所获得的报酬极低。但你不可能让中国所有的人都象劳改犯那样只劳动而不给工资。

同样,自由市场经济国家的政府并不是对劳动者进行强盗式掠夺,劳动者所获得的工资都比较高。

中国的产品相当于是奴工产品。外国从中国获得廉价产品,这是联合中国政府、厂商来一道盘剥中国的奴工。

在自由国家,政府无法随心所欲地建立血汗工厂。

川普提高关税对中美两国GDP的影响

《解析經濟學》中文版 第10章 進出口關稅
https://jasmine-action.blogspot.com/2019/02/10.html

关税率提高,进出口贸易总额直线下降。下面图形中的关税率是按照进出口商的利润来计算的。

当关税率为50%(同进出口商分享利润)时,关税总额达到最大。

当关税率为100%时,关税总额为0。

按照解析经济学的理论,一个国家因进出口贸易能够使得GDP增加,增加的百分比大约为(进出口贸易总额/GDP)。

使用2017年的数据,中美两国的贸易总额大致为7000亿美元,中国的GDP是12万亿美元,美国的GDP是19万亿美元。如果两国完全断绝贸易,中国的GDP损失是6%,而美国的损失是0.35%。

川普如果提高关税25%,我们假设进出口商所赚取的商业利润也是25%。就是说,川普的关税额度是同进出口商的利润相同。在这种情况下,贸易总额将下降了30%。 中国的GDP损失将是1.8%, 美国的GDP损失将是1.1%。

高盛的专家预计美国的GDP损失会达到0.4%。

中美两国贸易战,如果只看经济损失,中国的GDP损失百分比是美国GDP损失百分比的16倍。

从这一点上来说,中国的损失远远大于美国的损失。

但是,美国是自由市场经济,难以承受较大的经济波动。而中国是专制独裁国家,百姓忍耐力较强,能够忍受较大的经济波动。

我说中国的体制对经济波动的承受力较强,这是由共产主义制度所决定的。

中国饿死几千万人,坦克上街镇压,都不会影响政权的继续存在。

而对美国来说,如果有1%的GDP损失,美国总统就得下台了。

中美贸易总额的估算

按照
《解析經濟學》中文版 第10章 進出口關稅所给出的公式,中美贸易总额是同利润关税率成比例下降。

我们假设进出口商的平均商业利润率是25%。

在提高关税之前,美国对中国产品征收的关税率是10%,可算出利润关税率是 10%/(10%+25%)=28%

川普将关税提高到25%后,可折算出利润关税率是50%。

同10%关税比较,关税增加到25%后,进出口贸易总额将从0.72A 下降到0.5A,下降的百分比是30%。就是说,中美两国的贸易总额从7000亿美元下降到4900亿美元。这里的A是2017年的贸易总额。

中国的GDP损失是 30% * 7000/120000 = 1.8%;
美国的GDP损失是 30% * 7000/190000 = 1.1%;

如果中美两国都取消关税,就是川普将关税从10%下降到0,那么,中美两国的贸易总额将从0.72A上升到A,上升百分比是39%。
中国的GDP可增加 39% * 7000/120000 = 2%;
美国的GDP可增加 39% * 7000/190000 = 1.4%;

上面的估算要参考下面的两个图形:





上面的估算结果是假设进出口商的平均利润率是25%。这个25%利润率似乎是太高了。下面我们假设进出口商的利润率是10%,所计算的结果将是:

川普未提高关税时,关税率是10%,这相当于利润关税率是50%。

川普将关税提高到25%时,相当于利润关税率是 25%/(25%+10%)= 71%;

中美贸易总额由原来的7000亿美元下降为 7000 *(1-0.71)/0.5 = 4060千亿美元;下降42%。

中国的GDP损失是 7000*42%/120000 = 2.3%

美国的GDP损失是 7000*42%/190000 = 1.6%


中美贸易战,中美两国都存在一个最大的误区,就是认定贸易逆差是坏事,认为贸易顺差是好事。

但实际上,从经济利益上来讲,贸易逆差对本国是绝对有利,而贸易顺差是绝对不利。

用金融术语来说,贸易逆差的信用风险(Credit Exposure)远远大于贸易顺差的信用风险。
见下面的链接:

《解析經濟學》中文版 第13章 如何化解贸易逆差
https://jasmine-action.blogspot.com/2019/05/13.html


刘刚
2019年5月13日

Tuesday, May 7, 2019

《解析經濟學》中文版 第12章 中美贸易摩擦

本文网址:https://jasmine-action.blogspot.com/2019/05/12.html

第11章 進出口貿易的定性分析
https://jasmine-action.blogspot.com/2019/03/11.html

《解析經濟學》11.7 愚公和山姆关于贸易的对话
https://jasmine-action.blogspot.com/2019/03/117.html

第12章中美贸易摩擦
https://jasmine-action.blogspot.com/2019/05/12.html

第13章 如何化解贸易逆差
https://jasmine-action.blogspot.com/2019/05/13.html

---------------------

















《解析經濟學》中文版 第13章 如何化解贸易逆差

本文网址:https://jasmine-action.blogspot.com/2019/05/13.html

下面是《解析经济学》的第13章:化解贸易逆差。这应该是美国总统川普在中美贸易谈判中所应采取的策略。

根据我们的理论,如果一个国家有贸易逆差是对本国绝对有利的事情。美国对华贸易中出现巨额贸易逆差,这对美国是大大的好事,美国的问题是如何消化因贸易逆差所带来的大量进口物资,而不应设法去消除这种贸易逆差。

川普所采取的策略是通过提高进口关税来消除贸易逆差,这可能会有助于减少进口,实现贸易均衡。但这是相当于将中国“无偿”送给美国的巨额物资拒之门外,是有便宜不占的傻瓜干的蠢事。

刘刚
2019年5月7日


第11章 進出口貿易的定性分析
https://jasmine-action.blogspot.com/2019/03/11.html

《解析經濟學》11.7 愚公和山姆关于贸易的对话
https://jasmine-action.blogspot.com/2019/03/117.html

第12章中美贸易摩擦
https://jasmine-action.blogspot.com/2019/05/12.html

第13章 如何化解贸易逆差
https://jasmine-action.blogspot.com/2019/05/13.html


-----------------------
















Saturday, April 27, 2019

学术特务朱峰教授被美国FBI禁止入境

本文网址:https://jasmine-action.blogspot.com/2019/04/fbi.html



纽约时报发文,报道中国南京大学教授朱峰被美国FBI当成中国的学术特务被禁止入境。看到此文,不禁令我想起我在北京大学认识的朱峰。下面是我随手写下的几个相关推文。

推文链接:https://twitter.com/LiuGang8964/status/1122094265033793536

32年前的事了,下面所叙述的相关对话,都是根据记忆,只能是大致准确。



1987年,我在北京大学助选李淑贤竞选海淀区人大代表。校方派出很多潜伏在北大的一些卧底间谍和特务对这次竞选进行破坏。当时,朱峰是北京大学法律系的博士研究生,担任北大研究生会主席。李扬(女)是北京大学团委书记。这两位带领一群特务来对我们进行威胁、恐吓、利诱,

朱峰、李扬几次在我们物理系组织特别的“预选”,主要目的就是筛掉李淑贤的候选人资格。有一次预选,是在学四(或学二,我记不起确切名字了)食堂的二楼举行。由李扬主持会议,朱峰先说明这次预选的规则,就是先由50人中选出一名学生代表,由学生代表进行投票选举。

我当即表示反对这次预选。我提出的理由是:

1. 我们系的第二轮预选已经结束,已经选出了三名候选人,就是李淑贤、荀坤、A博士。这次对我们物理系单独再搞一次预选,就是违法操作。

2. 朱峰说那次北大的几次预选方案是由他拟定的。但对物理系额外增加的这次预选就是选举规则中不存在的,这分明就是你们连你们制定的选举规则都不想遵守。

3. 因为这次预选是非法的,我拒绝参加投票,也坚决不承认这次预选的结果。

4. 我将向法庭起诉朱峰、李扬等人的操弄民主选举的违法犯罪行为。

5. 我要检查这次参加选举会议的所有学生代表的资格,看看他们当中究竟有哪些人是有所在班级的学生推选出来的,又有哪些是你们钦定的选举机器。

朱峰和李扬反复解释说,之所以在我们物理系搞这次额外的预举,是为了让物理系由三名候选人中推举出一位候选人,然后,进入下一轮选举中,我们物理系的候选人就更有可能最终胜出。

我反驳他们:你们是来帮我们物理系来搞手脚,让我们的候选人更有机会最后当选?你们凭什么要偏爱物理系的候选人啊?

你们这些制定规则的人,就是这样根据你们的喜好来不断制定规则,又不断更改规则,来确保你们所喜好的候选人来最终当选么?那你们我要我们参与投票干什么,何必不干脆将你们所内定的人直接推出来让我们投票呢,你们不是当众脱裤子放屁嘛。

那次会议上,李淑贤不在,荀坤是我当时的同班同学,另一位候选人比我们高一级的博士生,我一时想不起他的名字了,都是我好友,也都是我当时找物理系的研究生及化学系同学联名将他们推荐成为物理系候选人的。我们事先已经约好,他们参选,就是为了设法保证李淑贤的候选人资格。

荀坤及另一位博士候选人也发表讲话,他们支持我的意见,并表示,认为这种筛选是非法的。

李扬和朱峰还是固执己见,给每个参加会议的人都发了一个白纸条,让大家在这三位候选人中只选一人,最后将得票最多的人作为物理系的唯一的一位候选人。

选举结果,李淑贤得票第一。

按照朱峰事先公布的选举规则,李淑贤应该作为唯一的候选人进入第三轮选举。但是,戈扬马上宣布,这次选举结果不算数。物理系进入下一轮的候选人依旧是这三位。

我马上质问李扬和朱峰:我欢迎你们知错改错的做法,但我也希望你们能认罪悔罪,而不是一计不成,又施一计,明天背着我们又搞一次非法筛选。

我最后还警告他们,我保证会去控告他们非法操纵选举的违法犯罪行为。

第二天,我就去了学校的选举办公室对李扬和朱峰的行为进行举报。

随后不久,李扬就被派往驻欧洲某国担任参赞,脱掉伪装,变成了公开的特务。

记得朱峰当时是北大研究生会的理事会主席,李进进是主席,我的同班同学黄海是社工部部长。黄海经常告诉我,我是他们研究生会的主要监视对象。我那时不认识李进进。每当我在北大三角地组织活动和演讲时,黄海就会指给我看哪个是他们安排来监视我们的卧底。李进进每次都是戴着一个墨镜,在我们的周围窥探,就跟电影中的那些跟踪盯梢的特务们一模一样!

上面说的物理系A博士,名字好象是陈晓霖。32年过去了,我连朋友的名字都记不起来了。但是,我是将特务的名字都是牢牢地记在心里了。

朱峰,这个特务当的,最后还是被美国FBI给抓住尾巴了。这辈子甭想来美国卧底了。

那次选举过后,朱峰几次请我去他的宿舍聊天。表示他对我的敬意,说我这次选战干得漂亮,让他佩服得五体投地。

我告诫他要专心搞学术,不要当特务。

最终,他还是忘却了我对他的忠告,成为学术圈里的特务。

我说朱峰是文化特务,那是说他在中国如此做事可能算是正常,但在美国如此行事,那可就要被抓特务啦。

刘刚
2019年4月27日

-------------



担忧间谍活动,FBI禁止部分中国学者进入美国

https://cn.nytimes.com/china/20190416/china-academics-fbi-visa-bans/?utm_source=tw-nytimeschinese&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=cur
JANE PERLEZ
2019年4月16日


联邦调查局局长克里斯托弗·A·雷去年在参议院的一个听证会上警告,中国“从他们方面(提出)一个全社会的威胁”,这就需要“一个全社会的响应”。


北京——和前几次旅行时一样,朱锋在洛杉矶机场匆匆吃完午餐后,跑去赶中国国际航空公司的航班回北京。
突然,两名联邦调查局特工在登机口拦下这名中国学者,下令让他交出护照。他们翻到已经用过多次的来美10年签证那页,用一支黑笔在上面打了个大叉。
朱锋回想起一名特工对他说的话:“回中国去。你会收到通知。”朱锋是国际关系教授,上述情况发生在他去年1月访美时。
在中美关系正常化后的40年里,华盛顿通常欢迎中国学者和研究人员来美国,即使是在北京对想来中国的美国学者不太开放的时候。不论共和党还是民主党执政,政府都有这样一种假设:让中国学者了解美国价值观,对国家利益有好处。

现在,这扇门似乎正在关闭,两国之间的战略竞争日益加剧,彼此都对对方的学术访问者有更大的怀疑,怀疑他们从事间谍活动、商业盗窃和政治干预。
美国联邦调查局启动了一项反情报行动,旨在禁止涉嫌与中国情报机构有联系的中国学者进入美国。据中国学者和他们的美国同行说,在过去一年里,有多达30名社会科学领域的教授、学术机构负责人和帮助解释中国政府政策的专家的赴美签证被取消,或被行政复议。
这项行动始于联邦调查局局长克里斯托弗·A·雷(Christopher A. Wray)去年在参议院的一个听证会上发出的警告。雷说,中国“从他们方面(提出)一个全社会的威胁”,这就需要“一个全社会的响应”。
美国国务院一名官员在书面答复记者提问时说,美国执法部门认为,中国情报机构正在越来越多地利用来访的中国学者,把美国公民作为情报搜集目标。国务院表示,它不会讨论具体案件的细节。
联邦调查局说,它不会证实或否认对这些来访学者所做的任何调查。
特朗普政府已寻求对在美国研究机构工作的中国科学家窃取知识产权的行为进行打击。去年,美国开始限制在敏感研究领域学习的中国研究生的签证,并警告美国大学的生物医学研究人员,对试图从他们的实验室窃取信息的中国间谍保持警惕。
美国担心的核心问题是,中国已对美国的技术主导地位构成威胁。中国国家主席习近平已制定了让中国在2049年成为全球科学强国的目标。
2017年,特朗普总统和中国国家主席习近平在北京。
2017年,特朗普总统和中国国家主席习近平在北京。
一些对中国有多年研究的美国学者说,毫无理由地禁止一些中国社会科学学者进入美国,可能会损害美国在追求知识方面开放并愿意合作的名声。
这些美国人说,受签证禁令影响的中国学者中有些是对美国有全面了解的知识分子。

“这些人中有些是最了解美国如何运作的人,也是最强烈主张与美国保持良好关系的人,”加州大学圣迭戈分校(University of California San Diego)二十一世纪中国研究中心(21st Century China Center)主任谢淑丽(Susan Shirk)说。“我们正在疏远美国在中国的一些最好的朋友。”
其他美国研究者立场则更为强硬,他们认为两国之间的学术交流已经成为一条只对中国有利的单行道。他们指责中国拒绝向那些寻求研究的问题被中国人认为过于敏感的美国学者发放签证,而这些学者的中国同行在美国却基本上不受限制。
几十年来,中国一直拒绝向一些批评中国人权记录的有影响力的美国学者发放签证。随着国家主席习近平在学术界发起一场反对所谓西方价值观的运动,中国当局已经变得更加苛刻。
受美国签证禁令影响的主要是中国社会科学院的专家们,社科院是一家官方机构,下设许多研究所。
社科院美国研究所所长吴白乙说,今年1月,他在亚特兰大参加卡特中心(Carter Center)的一个活动时,联邦调查局特工对他进行了询问。他的签证后来被取消。
社科院学者吕祥几年前曾在华盛顿的战略与国际研究中心(Center for Strategic and International Studies)访问过六个月,他说,他的签证去年被取消了。

“他们也许觉得我们对美国了解得太多了,”他说。
一些学者被告知,他们可以申请单次入境签证。
但他们必须提供自己的地址、电话号码和过去15年的旅行记录,北京重阳金融研究院院长王文说。
王文的签证在他参加了卡特中心的会议后被取消。他说,他决定不申请一次性入境签证,因为那些问题太令人讨厌。
“我不想在未来几年去美国,”他说。“这不是我的损失,这是美国政府的损失。他们失去了一位有影响力的朋友。”
洛杉矶国际机场的一架中国国际航空班机。去年,两名联邦调查局特工在登机口拦下了中国学者朱锋。
洛杉矶国际机场的一架中国国际航空班机。去年,两名联邦调查局特工在登机口拦下了中国学者朱锋。 DANIEL SLIM/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE — GETTY IMAGES
签证在洛杉矶机场被取消的国际关系专家朱锋今年55岁,他是后毛泽东时代中国的第一代美国问题专家。
在20世纪80年代和90年代,他开始对北京大学的美国研究着迷,他曾师从该领域的巨头之一罗伯特·A·斯卡拉皮诺(Robert A. Scalapino)。朱锋第一次去美国是1999年访问蒙特雷国际研究学院(Monterey Institute of International Studies)。

联邦调查局第一次对他进行询问是在他抵达洛杉矶,准备转机去圣迭哥参加一个会议时。他们问他是否曾经与中国人民解放军和外交部合作。他说,他们还问他,他的同事中谁与中国情报部门关系密切。
他说,他们告诉他,如果不合作,会被认为对美国不友好。
朱锋说,他否认与军方有过合作,他告诉特工,对关于外交部的问题,他无可奉告。关于同事的问题,他说:“我不知道。”他拒绝了合作的建议。
朱锋在接受采访时说,他曾与中国国际友好联络会下属的一个组织合作过,中国国际友好联络会是中国共产党的一个分支机构,旨在促进中国在海外的利益。该组织帮助他在中国举办了一个关于东北亚安全的会议,出席会议的有退役海军上将丹尼斯·布莱尔(Dennis Blair)和退役的中国将军。
朱锋现任南京大学南海协同创新研究中心主任。他说,他还曾与外交部政策规划司有过合作。
他说,他没有做过损害与美国关系的事情。他承认,安全机构不容置疑的权威,让中国学者处于一种尴尬境地。

“中国从本质上讲是一个警察国家。当国家安全官员来到我的办公室时,我没有办法把他们赶出去,”他说。
签证禁令意味着他不能去参加儿子的大学毕业典礼。他把自己不能去美国看作是中国人对美国的态度将怎样改变的象征。
“在过去40年里,我这一代的中国人从与美国的良好关系中获益良多,”他说。
“但对我儿子这一代来说,这将会改变。他们认为美国没有帮助,越来越不友好,越来越可恶。”

Tuesday, April 2, 2019

六四感言

本文网址:https://jasmine-action.blogspot.com/2019/04/blog-post.html

中国海内外的一群人从几年前就开始准备着纪念“六四”三十周年。年复一年的纪念,不过就是让一群人再体会一下当英雄的感觉,让某些人再喊出几句当领袖的豪言壮语。

柏林墙被一群平民给推倒了,德国共产党暴政在一夜之间土崩瓦解。有谁将那些推倒柏林墙的人捧为英雄,又当领袖的?

罗马尼亚的士兵们将统治那个国家几十年的独裁者齐奥塞斯库夫妇逮捕,并就地正法,一举摧毁独裁政权,并走上民主道路。有哪个人将那些枪决齐奥塞斯库的人捧为民族英雄,并推举为领袖的?

突尼斯千百万民众走上街头,推翻独裁政权。有谁将那些最先走上街头的人捧为英雄,并推举为领袖了?

这种成功的民主运动在世界历史上举不胜举。可有哪个国家的人民年复一年地去纪念这些成功的民主运动?

“六四”同那些成功的民主运动不仅是结局不同,而且是出发点就是根本不同。

“六四”从本质上说,是没有摆脱公车上书,是奴隶向皇帝跪谏,连死谏都算不上,甚至就是一个撒娇的孙子在跟爷爷讨个糖吃。

只有中国人,在年复一年地去纪念甚至庆祝他们的一次失败的运动。

这种纪念跪谏的人,那就是连下跪都会感到恐惧、都会认为没机会的人。

失败了,就要总结经验教训,爬起来重新再来。而不是从此就趴在地上打滚,逼着对手给你平反昭雪,请求那些将你打倒的人能自己扇自己耳光,再向你道歉,才肯爬起来。

在过去的30年时间里,我只是在初来美国的1996年,被一些人叫去参加了几个六四纪念活动。当即便发现上当受骗。从此再也不参与这种年复一年的纪念活动。

我多次发文,反复指出“六四”被某些别有用心的人给“神话”了,无非是某些人是在借助神话“六四”来神话他们自己。

某些人将“六四”打造成一个牌坊,一个排座次的忠烈祠,甚至是将“六四”当成是讨饭骗捐的要饭碗。

他们将那些参加“六四”的人捧为领袖,将纪念六四的人捧为英雄,将年复一年地念叨六四的人捧为专家。这导致各类骗子层出不穷,没参加过“六四”的人也都说自己是六四英雄,没看过“六四”的人也敢说给六四捐款了。

以纪念一个失败的运动当成自己追求民主的唯一活动和唯一诉求的民族,是没有希望的民族。

是,我也会牢记8964。我将8964当成是我一生最大的痛,和最大的失败来铭刻在心。

中国人年年在纪念“四五”运动,不过就是为了要纪念魏京生的一句话:“第五个现代化”。魏京生就因为这么一句话,就被捧为中国的民主之父。这“第五个现代化”,说穿了,在形式上同“三项指示为纲”、“一阶阶斗争为纲”、“四个现代化”没有什么本质不同,不过都是农民老爷爷种田种地时都能摆弄的理论。

中国人年年都反思“六四”,可居然最后就总结出了“见好就收,见坏就上”这种奇谈怪论,胡平居然就以此被尊奉为中国最伟大的哲学家、理论家。如果胡平对股民说“见底就买,见高就卖”,中国人是否要将胡平尊奉为最伟大的经济学家啊?胡平还居然好意思将这种放之四海而皆准、放之四海而无用的理论年复一年地在反复卖弄。你何必不跟大家说“烧红的铁拿起来烫手”啊?你是拿大家都当成是三岁娃娃在耍么?

魏京生靠着一句”第五个现代化“成为中国的民运之父,这是中国人的悲哀。

胡平给六四提出的“见好就收,见坏就上”的指导方针,而且流传至今,这更是中国文化人的耻辱。

在我看来,反思”四五“,最最重要的就是要超越魏京生,就是要遗忘魏京生,不能让这么一个毫无任何现代民主理论和战略的人掌握民主运动的话语权,让这些个只是偶尔参加了几次类似红卫兵街头运动的农民老大爷指导中国的民主运动。

反思”六四“,就是超越王丹、胡平这些自诩的六四领袖、导师的人,砸烂他们的牌坊,不能象他们那样地将六四树立为讨钱骗捐的牌坊。

王丹、魏京生、胡平这些被众多人崇拜的所谓领袖,在海外几十年,除了能年复一年的纪念什么“六四”、“四五”,几乎就一无所成,一无所长,毫无长进。即没有理论建树,更没有战略、策略、行动的创举。居然就有一群人将这种人当成是他们的指路明灯,期盼他们成为中国未来的领袖。这就是中国民主的莫大悲哀。

李宗恒 @lizhongheng:刘大师,64纪念还是有意义的,因为现在年青人大多就不知道有这个事。另外,64纪念可以让土共道义力量下降'。最后,前事不忘,后事之师。纪念活动,对预防悲剧重演也有好处。当然,刘大师批评64纪念,本身也是一种纪念。这就是观点自由的益处。

刘刚:如果说纪念是为了揭露暴政,那么镇反、文革、大饥荒、反右比“六四”、“四五”更加值得纪念。

可是,为什么有众多人热衷于纪念“六四”、“四五”啊?那是因为这可以将某些人吹捧成英雄,满足他们的领袖梦,便于他们满世界地去乞讨募捐。

刘刚
2019年4月2日

下面是网友的相关评论:

落叶松 @GentlemanLarch:中国人几个人能懂刘刚的意思?几个人能理解刘刚对锅的前后态度?中国人民目前大多数的状态还是“强者崇拜”,而且是奴性,盲目性很重的崇拜。这不但不是实现民主的前提,而且还是专制极权的一大保障!90后好一些,但是90后谁知道民运?

谈八九英雄一:多年前我面对一个这类“英雄”我不客气的跟他说:你是被英雄,不是真英雄,因为你的行为不是你成熟思考的,但你依然是英雄,因为你为此行为付出了代价。可那是过去的英雄,不是现在的英雄。如果现在还想做英雄,需要你在当下依然有相应的作为。

谈八九英雄二,民运走到今天不堪的境地,有两个原因:1,人的原因,2,钱的原因。人的原因是这批人是学生,而不同于美国建国时的工人,农场主那样成熟,纯属激情,且没有经过象牙塔以外的社会训练,先天能力不足。在他们登上神坛后,鲜有刘刚这种能走下来去从事社会工作的。

谈八九英雄三,不是不能专业搞政治,相反,以政治为业是必须的。但是必须是有一定社会经历的人!这不是说有极端社会经历,而是有够丰富的社会经历。学生从来都不适合做这样的事情!

谈八九英雄四,钱是必须品,纵观全世界类似运动,三样不可少:钱,人,枪。近现代,枪可以不要了!但是钱个人不可少!当年孙中山为什么有人给钱?因为那时候的华侨不靠中国赚钱,他们给钱不影响自己的生意。当今,连美国都靠中国牟利!大环境变了!不是没人想给,而是没人敢给!

谈八九英雄五
如何解决?不知道,但是想要解决,必须具备两个条件:1,有来自体制内的反对声音,至少是不同声音,并转化成组织力量。2,美国,日本,台湾的态度很重要!如果没有这三方主权势力的默许和支持,真正的反对派力量永远不敢也不会行动!89民运人士作为群体是阻碍,作为个体,尚有几人可用!


刘刚:赞同你的这些对八九民运的评论。

早在8964期间,我就在高自联成立的会议上及后来的几次会议上反复讲,学生不是社会的主体,学生的诉求不代表社会的真正诉求,学生永远不会成为一个社会政治活动的主体。不应将学生运动作为推动社会政治变革的主要方式。学生运动通常是单纯、幼稚、难以成功的。

中国很多人寄希望于学生运动能改变中国的政治环境,这本身表明中国的大多数成年公民没有担当精神,这就如同是在面对一群强盗时,一群大男人将妇女儿童推出来当挡箭牌一样的懦夫行为。


落叶松 @GentlemanLarch:期待学生运动的人,更多的是想以学生为牺牲品。8964,难道不是党内斗争的牺牲品吗?这样做,是不道德的!社会的中坚力量自己不站出来,是解决不了这个问题的。中国的中坚力量在哪里?举例:处局营团级,民营中小企业主,学者教授。

刘刚:在人类历史的长河中,不管革命发生过多少次,革命都是如同海啸、地震、火山爆发一样的小概率事件。

那些分明知道革命是小概率事件的人,却整天盼望革命,臆想革命,都是属于幻想狂,是精神上的自我陶醉和自我安慰。

被关在监狱的犯人总是幻想着发生地震、天崩地裂,那是能够逃出地狱的最理想条件。

如同监狱里的犯人幻想天崩地裂一样,那些整天幻想革命、鼓动他人去革命的人,都是精神幻想狂,甚至就是怂恿他人为着他那个不切实际的幻想去无辜地流血牺牲,这就不仅是自我幻想,而且是对他人进行催眠术的骗子了。

郭文贵就是这种典型的骗子。还搬出什么喜马拉雅、爆料革命、共享贪官财产来骗钱骗捐。

Saturday, March 23, 2019

穆勒报告出笼,川普竞选团队勾结俄罗斯间谍被捉奸在床!

本文网址:http://jasmine-action.blogspot.com/2019/03/blog-post_23.html

下面是我在推特上就通俄门事件的部分评论。


国会要求川普的一些竞选助手递交电子邮件,班农和伊万卡顿时吓尿了。班农递交了几千页的相关文件。班农是否将“法制基金”的文件也上交给国会去调查了?




The Mueller report is out — here's everyone who has been charged and convicted in the Russia probe so far
https://www.businessinsider.com/who-has-been-charged-in-russia-investigation-mueller-trump-2017-12

Mueller has submitted his final report — here are all the known contacts between the Trump campaign and Russian government-linked people or entities
https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-campaign-russia-government-contact-timeline-2018-7

穆勒的报告应该很快就会递交给司法部长。

且不说穆勒报告的内容,单只看穆勒调查过程中已经起诉的人:

Paul Manafort马纳福特,川普竞选委员会主席
Rick Gates,马纳福特的副手,川普竞选委员会副主席
科恩:担任川普私人律师12年
George Papadopoulos川普竞选顾问
Roger Stone 罗杰·斯通, 川普的竞选顾问
Michael Flynn川普的首任国家安全顾问,是基辛格在尼克松曾经担任的角色。

上面的这些人都是川普竞选团队的核心成员,除了斯通正在等待审判外,其他人都已经承认有罪甚至已经判刑。

另外,包括川普的大儿子小川普,女婿库什纳等人都有确凿证据在川普竞选期间以各种方式同俄罗斯间谍有各种联系。

川普团队的前十为核心成员,至少有八人同俄罗斯间谍私下勾结。

这些人如果是没有大老板的同意甚至授意,会私自同俄罗斯间谍勾结吗?如果有一或二人私下勾结外国间谍,或许有可能。

但是,川普竞选团队的核心成员几乎有八成同俄罗斯间谍暗地里勾结,狼狈为奸,没有大老板的授意和统一指挥,几乎就是不可能发生的事件。

上述被起诉的或判刑的人,几乎都有一条罪状是撒谎,他们都拼命掩盖他们同俄罗斯间谍的各种联系。

他们为什么要拼命掩盖同俄罗斯人的联系?这必定是有见不得人的勾当,而且必定是曾经有攻守同盟,要统一口径地掩盖同俄罗斯人的联系和各种交易,他们都明知道这是叛国罪。

这些人冒着叛国罪的风险,去同俄罗斯间谍秘密勾结,而得到的结果就是为了帮助川普成功当上总统,所承担的风险则是被判刑入狱。有哪个人会愚蠢到这种程度去干这种蠢事吗?除非是受到川普的指使并且得到川普的某种承诺才会去干这种有巨大风险的卖国勾当。

川粉支持川普的理由之一是川普高智商,会作生意。可一张照片就能证明川普的智商归零了!


前天,3月21日,川普举着这张照片,向记者反复说,上面的红点标的是恐怖组织ISIS在叙利亚的占领区域。下面的图形表示ISIS被统统消灭。

川普将剿灭ISIS完全归功于自己。

可是,剿灭ISIS同川普有一毛钱关系吗?

剿灭ISIS的美军都是奥巴马总统就任期间派去的,川普唯一做的就是反复不断地指责奥巴马总统派遣这些美军,以及下令撤回这些美军。

川普的这种伎俩,就如同将世界上所有死亡的人都归功于他川普一样地弱智,将希特勒、萨达姆、卡扎菲的死亡都说成是他川普派美军予以消灭的同样地颠倒是非、贪天功为己有!真是滑天下之大稽!


3月20日,川普在白宫有又一次攻击特别检察官穆勒,声称他川普获得了很多选票,而穆勒不曾获得一张选票,一个没获得过选票的人居然来调查活动上千万选票的人。
川普还不如干脆说,所有的足球、篮球裁判都不曾进过一个球,有什么权力对场上球员给红牌,将参赛队员罚下场啊?

穆勒调查川普团队通俄门的报告终于完成了。可是,尚未看到穆勒报告之前,一些川粉就开始欢呼胜利了,说川普又赢了。

陆东自称是当今世界最最超前的预言家、阴谋家,居然就闭着眼睛宣布川普胜利了。陆东能将自己混成一个铁杆郭粉加铁杆川粉,那就是双倍的铁杆脑残嘛。

现在人们争论的焦点是通俄门事件究竟是否存在。

穆勒报告中已经汇总了7名川普竞选团队重要成员被起诉、被判刑,分别是上面列出的科恩、马纳福特、菲林、斯通、Gates、Papadopoulos等人,这些人都被坐实秘密勾结俄罗斯间谍来干涉美国大选,帮助川普成功竞选总统。他们还都有一条罪名:撒谎!

他们为什么撒谎?撒了哪些谎?

他们首先是否认同俄罗斯间谍有联系,这是被证明撒谎。

其实,他们最最主要的撒谎是拒不讲出受谁指使去勾结俄罗斯间谍。

另外,川普的儿子、女婿库什纳都在川普大厦同俄罗斯间谍有秘密会晤。科恩在国会作证时已经交待了川普儿子同川普低声耳语:一切都安排好了。

川普当时就对他儿子说:随时向我汇报。

川普竞选团队中除了被起诉的七人外,其他的重要成员就是川普、彭斯、班农、康维、库什纳、小川普、伊万卡。在这14人中,只有彭斯和康维不曾同俄罗斯间谍勾结,能够坐实同俄罗斯间谍有勾结的有9人,占川普团队核心成员的6成。

另外,穆勒已经起诉的俄罗斯方面同川普团队联络的间谍或渗透美国大选的俄罗斯黑客有25人,俄罗斯公司三家。

捉贼捉双。穆勒调查的通俄门事件,已经抓捕的川普团队成员7人,俄罗斯方面多达30人,这岂止是捉贼捉双,简直就是捉奸在床了嘛!

就仅仅根据穆勒已经起诉的37人和公司,说川普团队串通俄罗斯间谍干预美国大选,这是板上钉钉,任何人都无法否认的了。

现在的问题就是:

1. 那些俄罗斯间谍是受谁指使?普廷是否直接给这些间谍下令?
2. 川普团队的那些被起诉、被判刑的人,究竟是受谁指使去勾结俄罗斯间谍?

3. 他们为何要撒谎?要掩盖的真相是什么?
4. 川普团队同俄罗斯间谍勾结的目的是什么?最后使谁受益?
5. 今后是否要起诉川普的儿子小川普以及女婿库什纳?
6. 以何种方式追究川普和普京的责任?
7. 川普是否是服务于俄罗斯的利益?
8. 今后如何防范外国间谍干涉美国大选?

这些问题都是不言自明的。

刘刚
2019年3月23日


川普竞选委员会主席马纳福特



U.S. President Donald Trump's former campaign manager Paul Manafort arrives for a hearing at U.S. District Court in Washington, U.S., November 2, 2017.

马纳福特(Paul Manafort),川普竞选委员会主席。2016年4月,马纳福特同俄罗斯及乌克兰双料间谍康斯坦丁·基里姆尼克(Konstantin Kilimnik)多次共享俄罗斯的间谍信息和数据。

April 2016: Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort shares polling data with Konstantin Kilimnik, a Russian-Ukrainian political operative.

Konstantin Kilimnk, a political operative and former member of Russian intelligence, had been a long-time associate of Manafort, who worked for several years in Ukraine and Eastern Europe as a political consultant and financier.

According to a court filing submitted by Manafort's lawyers, Manafort shared campaign polling data with Kilimnik. The New York Times reported the data was then passed onto Ukrainian oligarchs Serhiy Lyovochkin and Rinat Akhmetov, who reportedly owed Manafort money.

Source:New York Times
-----------------------

April 2016: Manafort and Kilimnik discuss briefing Russian billionaire Oleg Deripaska on the campaign's operations

Manafort inquired if Russian billionaire oligarch Oleg Deripaska knew about Manafort joining the campaign, to which Kilimnik replied, "absolutely." Manafort then asked, "How do we use to get to whole?"

The emails between Manafort and Kilimnik suggest that Manafort sought to take advantage of the influence he had from his role on Trump's campaign, which was unpaid, to make up for a significant financial debt he owed to Deripaska.

Deripaska gave Manafort almost $19 million dollars in 2008 for use of the purchase of a Ukrainian company, but the investment fell through and their relationship went south. It was later revealed in June 2018 that Manafort owed Deripaska another $10 million on top of the previously known $19 million.

Sources:Business Insider,The Atlantic,
--------------------------------------

July 7, 2016: Manafort offers "private briefings" on the campaign to the Kremlin-linked oligarch Oleg Deripaska.
The Washington Post reported in September 2017 that Paul Manafort had, over a period of months, corresponded with Kilmnik on the subject of giving "private briefings" on the Trump campaign to Deripaska, the oligarch to whom Manafort owed tens of millions of dollars.

The emails, which were subsequently turned over to both Special Counsel Mueller's office and to congressional investigators, don't show proof that Deripaska was made aware of the offer or that any private meetings or briefings actually occurred.

Manafort was sentenced to a total of seven and a half years in federal prison earlier this month after facing two multi-count federal indictments charging him with numerous crimes related to fraud and obstruction of justice.

Neither set of charges were explicitly related to the Trump's campaign's communications with Russia, and revolve mostly around Manafort's decades of working on behalf of Eastern European governments.

Manafort went to trial and was convicted on 8 charges of tax and bank fraud in the Eastern District of Virginia in August 2018. He entered into a plea agreement with Mueller ahead of his second trial - but the deal fell apart when Mueller accused Manafort of lying in his conversations with investigators.

Source:Business Insider, Washington Post,Business Insider
----------------------------------------------------------

August 2016: Manafort and Kilimnik have more meetings.


Manafort and Kilimnik agreed to meet in New York twice, and they reportedly did so in early August. The meeting became a subject of interest to investigators, but Kilimnik maintained it was to discuss private matters and had nothing to do with politics or the campaign.

On August 14th, The New York Times published a story revealing Manafort had been secretly paid millions of dollars off the books by Ukrainian president Victor Yanukovych's party.

Soon after, the Associated Press reported that Manafort's political consulting firm had carried out lobbying on behalf of Yanukovych's party in the US, but hadn't registered as a foreign agent with the State Department.

Manafort formally resigned from the Trump campaign on August 19th. His close aide and deputy Rick Gates remained on staff.

Sources: Associated Press, New York Times,Washington Post
-----------------------------------------------------------



Michael Flynn川普的首任国家安全顾问,是基辛格在尼克松曾经担任的角色。

December 22, 2016: Gen. Michael Flynn, a national security advisor on Trump's campaign, reached out to Kislyak regarding a vote at the UN.

An indictment filed by Mueller's office in December 2017 revealed that Flynn contacted Kislyak requesting that Russia "vote against or delay" against a UN resolution regarding Israeli settlements in Palestinian territory.

Flynn struck a plea deal with Mueller to plead guilty on one count of making false statements to the FBI (regarding his communications with Russia) in exchange for cooperation with the special counsel investigation.

Flynn has cooperated with the Mueller probe since December 2017, and has not yet been sentenced. In a December 2018 sentencing memo, Mueller's team recommended a shorter sentence for Flynn, saying he had met with the special counsel's office 19 times and provided early — and invaluable — assistance.

The memo said Flynn "provided firsthand information about the content and interactions between [Trump's] transition team and Russian government officials."

Sources: Washington Post,Business Insider
----------------------------------------

December 29, 2016: Flynn and Kislyak continue to communicate on the subject of US sanctions on Russia.

Flynn and Kislyak called eachother multiple times on December 29th, the day President Obama announced sanctions against Russia and the expulsion of Russian intelligence operatives from the US in response to Russian hacking and interference in the 2016 election.

The calls "occurred between the time the Russian embassy was told about U.S. sanctions and the announcement by Russian President Vladimir Putin that he had decided against reprisals," according to Reuters.

The charges filed against Flynn by the special counsel's office say that Kislyak contacted Flynn on December 31st to inform him that the Kremlin had decided not to impose retaliatory sanctions against the US "at the Trump team's request."

Sources: The Washington Post,Reuters, The New York Times
------------------------------




科恩:担任川普私人律师12年

November 2015: Trump's personal attorney Michael Cohen reaches out to Russian weight-lifter Dmitry Klokov in an attempt to secure a deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin to build a Trump Tower in Moscow.

Ivanka Trump, daughter of President Donald Trump, reportedly first put Cohen and Klokov in contact, according to emails Buzzfeed News reviewed.

In one email, Klokov claimed "he could arrange a meeting between Donald Trump and Putin to help pave the way for the tower."

Cohen then refused the offer, telling Klokov there was an existing agreement to build a Trump Tower between Russia and the Trump Organization.

The nature of Klokov's relationship to Putin is unclear, but he and Cohen exchanged several emails in the fall of 2015.

In December 2018, Cohen pleaded guilty in the special counsel probe for lying about the timing during which the Trump Organization pursued the Trump Tower deal to the House Intelligence Committee in his 2017 congressional testimony.

Mueller's sentencing memo said that "in or around November 2015, Cohen received the contact information for, and spoke with, a Russian national who claimed to be a "trusted person" in the Russian Federation who could offer the campaign "political synergy" and "synergy on a government level," with the Russian national believed to be Klokov.

Source: BuzzFeed, Business Insider
-------------------------------------
January 2016: Cohen reaches out to Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov asking about the Trump Tower deal.

The Kremlin has since confirmed that they received Cohen's email, but did not reply. Cohen then called Peskov's assistant on or around Jan. 20, describing to her his position at the Trump Organization and how the Kremlin could help arrange the Trump Tower deal.

Cohen "requested assistance in moving the project forward, both in securing land to build the proposed tower and financing the construction," prosecutors say.

The Trump Tower deal is coming under renewed scrutiny in light of a recent bombshell Buzzfeed News report claiming that Trump personally directed Cohen to lie about the deal in his September 2017 testimony before the Senate Intelligence Committee.

Sources: Washington Post,US Department of Justice,Buzzfeed News
-------------------------------------

January 9, 2017: Michael Cohen met with a Russian oligarch in Trump Tower.

Cohen and Viktor Vekselberg, a Russian billionaire with ties to the Kremlin, talked about "a mutual desire to strengthen Russia's relations with the United States under President Trump," according to the New York Times.

Andrew Intrater, an American business associate of Vekselberg's who attended the meeting, gave Cohen a $1 million contract for his consulting services shortly after the inauguration.

Source:New York Times
--------------------



瑞克·盖茨(Rick Gates),川普竞选委员会副主席

September 2016: Trump campaign aide Rick Gates makes contact with an unidentified person with ties to Russian intelligence.

A court filing released in March 2018 from special counsel Mueller's office revealed that Rick Gates — Manafort's former deputy — had contacts with an unidentified person connected to Russian intelligence while Gates worked on the Trump campaign.

Those contacts took place during September and October of 2016, according to the special counsel's office.

Gates, along with Manafort, was indicted by a grand jury on 12 counts of conspiracy, money laundering, making false statements to investigators, and failing to register as a foreign agent in October 2017.

In February 2018, Gates made an agreement to plead guilty to one count of making false statements and one count of conspiracy against the United States in exchange for cooperating with Mueller's investigation.

Sources:CNN,Business Insider
---------------------------





帕帕多普洛斯(George Papadopoulos), 川普竞选顾问。在2016年3月24日,帕帕多普洛斯和米夫苏德在伦敦同俄罗斯女谍见面商讨安排川普竞选团队同俄罗斯人见面开会的相关事宜。2016年4月18日,通过米夫苏德的引荐,帕帕多普洛斯同俄罗斯外事委员会主席Ivan Timofeev私下见面,此后,双方多次通过电子邮件和网络视频商讨如何安排川普竞选团队同俄罗斯政府机构建立联系。

2016年4月26日,在伦敦见面时,米夫苏德告知帕帕多普洛斯,俄罗斯间谍机构已经盗取了关于希拉里的丑闻,声称掌握了数千关于希拉里的电子邮件。这比维基解密泄漏希拉里团队的电子邮件要早整整三个月!

Papadopoulos, 29, joined the Trump campaign as an unpaid adviser in March 2016.

But from his low-level position, Papadopoulos took on an outsize role in trying to facilitate communications and set up meetings between the Trump campaign and Russia.

One of his main contacts was Joseph Mifsud, the director of the London Academy of Diplomacy, a for-profit college program that was later shut down. Mifsud boasted of having "substantial connections to Russian officials," according to court documents.

Despite having scant credentials or expertise on Russia, Mifsud became active in elite Russian political circles after one of his interns, a 24-year-old Russian woman, introduced him to several high-level diplomats and scholars, The New York Times reported.

Mifsud even gained admission into the prestigious Valdai Discussion Club, a group of foreign policy scholars who host an annual meeting with Putin.

Sources: The New York Times, Lawfare, Washington Post
-------------------------------------------

April 18, 2016: Mifsud introduced Papadopoulos over email to Ivan Timofeev, a Director at the Kremlin-linked Russian International Affairs Council who claimed to have ties to Russia's foreign ministry.

Papadopoulos and Timofeev exchanged several emails during that period and had at least two Skype conversations, discussing the logistics of setting up a meeting between the Trump campaign and the Russian government.

Sources: The New York Times, US District Court for the District of Columbia
------------------------------------------

April 26, 2016: During a meeting in London, Mifsud told Papadopoulos that the Russians had "dirt" on Hillary Clinton.

In the meeting, Mifsud reportedly claimed the "dirt" on Clinton came in the form of "thousands of emails."

The April meeting took place three months before Wikileaks released approximately 20,000 emails hacked from the server of the Democratic National Committee, which revealed how DNC staffers sought to secure the nomination of Hillary Clinton over Bernie Sanders.

The next month, Papadopoulos told Australian intelligence official Alexander Downer about the Clinton emails over drinks at a swanky London bar. Downer then tipped off US authorities to the conversation, sparking the initial FBI investigation into the Trump campaign's contacts with Russia.

In December 2017, Papadopoulos pleaded guilty to one count of lying to the FBI about his conversations with Mifsud. He served 14 days in prison in November 2018.

Source: The New York Times
-------------------------------------
Ten days after Papadopoulos and Mifsud first made contact in Italy, the two met again — this time with a Russian woman who Papadopoulos described as "Putin's niece" in an email to Trump campaign co-chairman Sam Clovis.

The woman, later identified as Olga Polonskaya, has no relation to Putin.

In April, Papadopoulos and Polonskaya exchanged several emails discussing the possibility of the Trump campaign making a foreign policy trip to Russia.

"We are all very excited by the possibility of a good relationship with Mr. Trump. The Russian Federation would love to welcome him once his candidature would be officially announced," Polonskaya wrote in one email.

In October 2017, Papadopoulos pleaded guilty to making false statements to the FBI regarding his contacts with Russian-linked people, and became a cooperating witness in the Mueller probe.

Sources: The New York Times, US District Court for the District of Columbia

April 29-30, 2016: George Papadopoulos continues to communicate with Mifsud and Polonskaya.

On the 29th, he emailed Polonskaya again about a potential trip to Russia. On the 30th, he reached out to Mifsud to thank him "for his 'critical help' in arranging a meeting between the Campaign and the Russian government."

Source:US Department of Justice
-------------------------------

Timofeev emailed Papadopoulos again on May 8th to inquire about putting him in contact with the US desk at the MFA.

In the following weeks, Timofeev and Papadopoulos had at least one Skype call where Timofeev reported a "good reaction" to the idea of a visit from his colleagues in the foreign affairs ministry.

In a May 13th email to Papadopoulos, Mifsud wrote, "we will continue to liaise through you with the Russian counterparts in terms of what is needed for a high level meeting of Mr. Trump with the Russian federation."

Sources:US Department of Justice
-------------------------------------
May 4, 2016: Timofeev emails Papadopoulos claiming his colleagues in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) were "open to cooperation."

Timofeev emailed Papadopoulos again on May 8th to inquire about putting him in contact with the US desk at the MFA.

In the following weeks, Timofeev and Papadopoulos had at least one Skype call where Timofeev reported a "good reaction" to the idea of a visit from his colleagues in the foreign affairs ministry.

In a May 13th email to Papadopoulos, Mifsud wrote, "we will continue to liaise through you with the Russian counterparts in terms of what is needed for a high level meeting of Mr. Trump with the Russian federation."

Sources:US Department of Justice
-------------------------------

斯通同俄罗斯及维基解密的勾结



罗杰·斯通(Roger Stone)
Early May 2016: Trump campaign advisor Roger Stone meets with a Russian offering him dirt on Hillary Clinton in exchange for $2 million. He declines.

The 2016 meeting between Stone and the Russian, Henry Greenberg, was not disclosed to congressional investigators and unknown until the Washington Post reported on it in June of 2018.

Stone reportedly told Greenberg that Trump "doesn't pay for anything."

In text messages between Stone and Trump campaign communications official Michael Caputo, Stone said Greenberg "wants big &$ for the info--waste of time."

Greenberg, who has also used the last name Oknyansky, has previously worked as an FBI informant but was not doing so at the time of the meeting.

Sources: Washington Post
------------------------

August 14, 2016: Roger Stone direct messages Guccifer 2.0, a persona created by Russian intelligence who claimed responsibility for the hack of the DNC's emails, on Twitter.

"Glad to see you are re-instated," Stone wrote to Guccifer after a previous suspension of his Twitter account had been lifted.

After the Washington Post reported that the DNC was hacked by Russian operatives, Stone responded by writing in Breitbart in July 2016 claiming that Guccifer, "a lone hacker," and not the Russian government carried out the hacking.

Over the following weeks, Stone and Guccifer exchanged several messages on Twitter in which Guccifer expressed admiration for Stone and offered to assist the Trump campaign.

"please tell me if i can help u anyhow," Guccifer wrote in one message.

US intelligence officials had long suspected that Guccifer was either a real person linked to Russian intelligence or a fake persona they had created. In March of 2018, that suspicion was confirmed when Guccifer accidentally revealed himself to be Russian security officer.

In July 2018, the Russian intelligence officers who had created the Guccifer profile were charged by the Special Counsel for conspiracy against the United States, aggravated identity theft, and money laundering in relation to the hacks of the DNC, DCCC, and Clinton campaign.

Sources: Business Insider,JustSecurity, Business Insider ,ABC
--------------------------------

September 9, 2016: Guccifer 2.0 contacts Stone again with data obtained through hacking.
Guccifer 2.0 direct messaged Stone a link to Florida political operative's blog, which published Florida voter turnout data obtained by Guccifer in a hack of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC).

Stone replied, deeming the information "pretty standard."

Source:Wall Street Journal, Business Insider
---------------------------------------------
October 13, 2016: Stone directly messages WikiLeaks over Twitter. They had previously communicated only through an intermediary.
Stone messaged WikiLeaks confronting them with his "defense of Assange and the organization" on Twitter after WikiLeaks put out a statement claiming to have never spoken with Stone.

Stone previously testified under oath before Congress in September 2016 that he had communicated with WikiLeaks through intermediaries, later revealed to be radio host Randy Credico and conspiracy theorist Jerome Corsi.

After asking Stone not to publicly affiliate himself with Wikileaks, Stone told them to "remember who their friends were."

Stone, who has worked as a political consultant for Trump since the 1980s, was arrested and charged with one count of obstruction of justice, five counts of false statements, and one count of witness tampering, in January. He plans to plead not guilty.

The indictment charging Stone alleges that Stone made "multiple false statements to [the House Intelligence Committee] about his interactions regarding Organization 1, and falsely denied possessing records that contained evidence of these interactions" in 2017 testimony. Organization 1 is believed to be WikiLeaks.

Not only is making false statements to Congress a crime, but the indictment said that Stone's misleading testimony deliberated obstructed ongoing investigations by the FBI, House Intelligence Committee, and Senate Intelligence Committee.

Source: The Washington Post, The Atlantic
----------------------------------------



川普团队其他成员同俄罗斯的秘密勾结:


赛辛斯(川普竞选顾问、后来担任司法部长)同俄罗斯的秘密勾结



April 27, 2016: Then-campaign advisors Jeff Sessions and Jared Kushner met with Russian ambassador Sergey Kislyak at a reception before Trump gave a speech on foreign policy at the Mayflower Hotel.

In the speech, which was edited by Papalodopous, Trump vowed to improve relations with Russia by collaborating on "shared interests."

Ambassador Kislyak said he and Sessions discussed policy matters related to Russia, which Sessions denied. US intelligence officials later described them as having had a "substantive conversation."

After the event, Papadopoulos emailed then-campaign manager Corey Lewandowski saying "Putin wants to host the Trump team when the time is right."
Source: Washington Post
-------------------------------------

July 18-20, 2016: Jeff Sessions, J.D. Gordon, and Carter Page all spoke to Russian Ambassador Sergei Kislyak at the Republican National Convention in Cleveland, Ohio.

Trump campaign foreign policy advisors J.D. Gordon and Carter Page told congressional investigators they met Kislyak at an RNC event attended by other diplomats.

Gordon said his interaction with Kislyak wasn't lengthy, but Page told congressional investigators that when he spoke to Kislyak, the subject of American sanctions on Russia "may have briefly come up in some context."

Sessions, who spoke with Kislyak after speaking at a private luncheon, originally did not disclose the meeting to congressional investigators.

Just a day after Trump became the Republican nominee for President, Wikileaks released over 20,000 emails obtained through the hacking of the Democratic National Committee by Russia.

Source:Washington Post,Business Insider
---------------------------------------

September 8, 2016: Sessions met with Ambassador Kislyak in his Washington, DC Senate office.


Sergey Kislyak, Russia's ambassador to the US. Cliff Owen/AP

Sessions said the meeting, which was not originally disclosed during his January 2017 confirmation hearing, was also attended by two or three of his staffers. The Washington Post broke the story two months after the hearing.

In March of 2017, Sessions said they "listened to the ambassador and what his concerns might be," and discussed issues such as terrorism, travel to Russia, and Ukraine in the September 2016 meeting.

"I don't recall any specific political discussions," Sessions remarked.

When Sessions' previously undisclosed contacts with Russians were revealed, several top democrats called on him to resign, accusing him of perjury. Sessions later recused himself altogether from presiding over the Russia investigation, much to Trump's chagrin.

Source:Business Insider,Washington Post
-----------------------------------



川普儿子小川普同俄罗斯的秘密勾结





Donald Trump Jr. Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
Alexander Torshin, a former Russian senator from Putin's party and a former senior official at Russia's central bank told Bloomberg he had dinner with Donald Trump Jr., the president's son, at the annual convention for the National Rifle Association.

The White House confirmed they had met, but denied that they dined together. Torshin also reportedly tried to meet with Trump, an offer turned down by Jared Kushner.

Torshin is now accused of directing an effort to infiltrate American conservative organizations including the National Rifle Association and the National Prayer Breakfast to promote Russian interests, traveling everywhere from Alaska to Tennessee in his efforts.

He has since been sanctioned from the US Treasury Department, meaning he can no longer travel to the US.

Source: The Washington Post,NPR
-------------------------------------

June 3-7, 2016: The son of a prominent Russian real estate developer reaches out to Donald Trump Jr. promising incriminating information about Hillary Clinton.


Russian real estate developer Aras Agalarov (L) talks with his son, singer Emin Agalarov, during a news conference following the 2013 Miss USA pageant at the Planet Hollywood Resort & Casino in Las Vegas, Nevada June 16, 2013. Thomson Reuters

Goldstone contacted Donald Jr. on behalf of one of this clients, musician Emin Agalarov, whose father is a real estate developer with close ties to Putin.

In an email, Goldstone said Agalarov could provide "very high level and sensitive information" that would "incriminate Hillary" and was a part in "Russia and its government's support for Mr. Trump."

Donald Jr. quickly replied: "If it's what you say I love it especially later in the summer." Donald Jr. and Agalarov then spoke on the phone at least twice between June 6th and 7th.

On June 7th, Donald Trump promised "a major speech about Hillary Clinton's crimes."

Sources: Donald Trump Jr.,YouTube, The Washington Post
-------------------------------------

September 20, 2016: Wikileaks and Donald Trump Jr. begin a month-long series of communications over Twitter.

Wikileaks reached out to Trump Jr. to send him the username and password for a website belonging to a "PAC run anti-Trump site."

The US intelligence community now believes "with high confidence" that the Russian government enlisted the help of Wikileaks in disseminating hacked emails from the DNC, according to a report from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence.

They published and distributed thousands of emails hacked from the DNC on the first day of the Democratic National Convention, and later released hacked emails from the email account of Clinton staffer John Podesta the day after the release of the Access Hollywood tape in which Trump bragged about groping women.

Trump Jr. responded the following day, thanking Wikileaks for the information, and telling them he would "ask around" about it. He then forwarded the tweet to several senior campaign officials.

A few weeks later, Wikileaks asked Trump Jr. to "comment/push" an article about Hillary Clinton, which he did. Trump Jr. then inquired about a unpublished leak referenced in one of of Stone's tweets.

On October 12th, Wikileaks requested that Trump Jr. tell his father to tweet out links to Wikileaks stories, which he did.

The messages between Trump Jr. and Wikileaks were turned over to congressional investigators.

Source:The Atlantic, The Office of the Director of National Intelligence
----------------------------------

JD 高丹



September-October 2016: Trump national security advisor JD Gordon communicates with Maria Butina, an accused Russian spy.


Maria Butina, 29, was charged in July 2018 with espionage on behalf of Russia. AP Photo

The Trump campaign's then-national security director JD Gordon had some social interactions with gun rights activist Maria Butina, who was indicted on charges of being a Russian spy in July 2018.

Gordon, a former Pentagon spokesman, met Butina at multiple Republican party events and communicated with her over email before Trump's election in September and October 2016, according to emails reviewed by the Washington Post.

The emails involved discussions of US-Russia relations and some social invitations, in which Gordon invited Butina to a Styx concert, and then to his birthday party.

Prosecutors in Washington, DC are alleging that Butina, 29, infiltrated American right-wing circles and organizations such as the National Rifle Association, to advance Russian government interests without registering as a foreign agent, as is required by US law.

In a statement to the Post, Gordon called the Butina story "sensationalized clickbait," and denied any wrongdoing, arguing that Butina was eager to network and discuss US-Russian relations with a number of Republican officials.

In December, Butina plead guilty to one count of conspiring to act as unregistered foreign agent on behalf of Russian interests.

Sources: Washington Post, Business Insider,New York Times
------------------------------------------------------

November 10, 2016: Emin Agalarov contacts Trump Jr. again.


Emin Agalarov, Donald Trump, and Aras Agalarov at Miss America 2013 Victor Boyoko/Getty Images
Emin Agalarov sent Trump Jr. a text message shortly after the election which read,

"Don!!! Amazing run and a glorious victory!!!!! Congratulations to you and your dad, we are proud and happy for you !!!!!! Always at your disposal here in Russia [] Emin and Aras Agalarov@."

The close relationship between the Agalarov and Trump families is a subject of interest by both the Mueller probe and congressional investigations, which are both looking into the extent to which Aras and Emin Agalarov served as go-betweens for the Trump campaign and Putin.

In June 2018, Emin released a music video for a song titled "You Got Me Good," in which actors playing Trump, Stormy Daniels, Michael Cohen, Hillary Clinton, Ivanka and Jared Kushner, and even Kim Jong-un reenact some of Trump's biggest scandals.

Sources:YouTube,US House of Representatives Select Committee on Intelligence
----------------------------------


川普儿子小川普同俄罗斯的秘密勾结


December 2016: Jared Kushner meets with Ambassador Kislyak to discuss setting up a communications back-channel between the Trump transition team and Russia.


Jared Kushner. REUTERS/Lucas Jackson
A month after Trump's election, White House advisor Jared Kushner and Russian ambassador Kislyak met to discuss setting up a "secret and secure communications channel" between the Russian government and Trump's transition team.

According to intelligence briefings reported on by the Washington Post, Kushner suggested using Russian diplomatic equipment and resources to facilitate the communications.

The meeting, which was not disclosed until March of 2017, was also attended by General Michael Flynn.

Kushner also reportedly met with Sergey Gorkov, the President of Russian state-run bank VEB, as part of the transition's efforts to establish a back-channel.

Such a back-channel never materialized, but the meeting became a subject of the Mueller probe and congressional investigations.

Sources:The Washington Post ,CNN
-------------------------------

埃里克·普林斯(Erik Prince)


Erik Prince, 48, is one of America's most prominent defense contractors. Susan Walsh/AP
In January 2017, Erik Prince, the founder of private security firm Blackwater and the brother of Secretary of Education Betsy DeVos, met with Kirril Dmitriev, a Russian billionaire and the head of an investment firm sanctioned by the US Treasury Department.

Prince maintained that his meeting with Dmitriev was a chance encounter that only happened because they both happened to be at a luxury hotel in the Seychelles at the same time.

But George Nader, an American-Lebanese businessman who attended the meeting and is a cooperating witness in the Mueller probe, said the meeting was not only planned in advance, but was part of an effort to create an unmonitored back channel between the White House and the Kremlin.

In June 2018, Prince confirmed he "cooperated" with the Mueller probe, and allowed the special counsel's office to review communication records from his phone and computer.

Source: ABC News, Washington Post
----------------------------------


Russian real estate developer Aras Agalarov (L) talks with his son, singer Emin Agalarov, during a news conference following the 2013 Miss USA pageant at the Planet Hollywood Resort & Casino in Las Vegas, Nevada June 16, 2013. Thomson Reuters
Goldstone contacted Donald Jr. on behalf of one of this clients, musician Emin Agalarov, whose father is a real estate developer with close ties to Putin.

In an email, Goldstone said Agalarov could provide "very high level and sensitive information" that would "incriminate Hillary" and was a part in "Russia and its government's support for Mr. Trump."

Donald Jr. quickly replied: "If it's what you say I love it especially later in the summer." Donald Jr. and Agalarov then spoke on the phone at least twice between June 6th and 7th.

On June 7th, Donald Trump promised "a major speech about Hillary Clinton's crimes."

Sources: Donald Trump Jr.,YouTube, The Washington Post
-----------------------------------------------------

June 9, 2016: Trump campaign officials meet Russian lobbyists in Trump Tower.

Russian lawyer Natalia Veselnitskaya speaks during an interview with The Associated Press in Moscow, Russia on April 22, 2018. AP Photo/Dmitry Serebryakov
In what is now known as the infamous "Trump Tower meeting," Donald Trump Jr, Jared Kushner, and Paul Manafort met with Russian attorney and Kremlin affiliate Natalia Veselnitskaya, as well as a four other people affiliated with Russia in Trump Tower in Manhattan.

The Trump campaign attended the meeting under the impression that they would receive the damaging information about Clinton they were promised. But Veselnitskaya came with nothing on Hillary Clinton. Her mission was instead to prove that major Democratic donors were evading taxes, and to lobby against the Magnitsky Act.

The Magnitsky Act, passed in 2012, freezes the assets and real estate and bars entry to the US for high-level Russian officials suspected of committing human rights abuses. In retaliation for the Act, Russia banned US adoptions of Russian children.

Veselnitskaya later said Donald Jr. seemed receptive to re-visiting the Magnitsky Act if his father were elected. Donald claimed Veselnitskaya was there in an unofficial capacity.

Subsequent reporting, however, suggests Veselnitskaya was in fact working on behalf of the Kremlin at the time. A memo she brought with her to the meeting almost identically matched one written by Russia's chief prosecutor.

Sources: The New York Times,Bloomberg, Business Insider
------------------------------------------------------



In this Friday, July 8, 2016, file photo, Carter Page, then adviser to U.S. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, speaks at the graduation ceremony for the New Economic School in Moscow, Russia. Associated Press/Pavel Golovkin
Trump campaign foreign policy advisor Carter Page went on a trip to Russia to give a speech at the commencement ceremony for the New Economic School in Moscow, Russia.

While there, he met with Andrey Baranov, head of investor relations at Russian state oil company Rosneft, and with Russian deputy prime minister Arkady Dvorkovich.

Page became under investigation by the FBI in September 2016 for pursuing contacts with Russians under sanction by the Magnitsky Act, including the CEO of Rosneft.

After he stepped down from his role in the Trump campaign in fall 2016, the FBI obtained a Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court (FISC) to surveil Page's communications. They suspected him of being a foreign agent engaging in intelligence operations on behalf of the Russian government.

Page, however, was never charged with a crime.

Sources: Business Insider, New York Times
---------------------------------

安东尼·斯卡拉姆齐


January 17-20, 2017: Anthony Scaramucci, then a member of the Trump transition team's executive committee, met with Dmitriev.



Anthony Scaramucci. Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
Scaramucci, who later served a 10-day stint as White House communications director, spoke with Dmitriev at the Davos World Economic Forum.

After meeting with Dmitriev, Scaramucci gave an interview with a Russian news agency in which he criticized Obama's sanctions for increasing anti-American sentiment in Russia.

Sources: New York Times,Russia Beyond
------------------------------------

相关的俄罗斯人物



密斯福德


Alex van der Zwaan


Aras Agalarov和他的儿子


Emin Agalarov, Donald Trump, and Aras Agalarov at Miss America 2013


Maria Butina


Natalia Veselnitskaya


俄罗斯驻美国大使Sergey Kislyak, Russia's ambassador


Yevgeny Prigozhin

Special counsel Robert Mueller submitted his final report into his nearly two-year-long investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election and the Trump campaign's contacts with Russia to Attorney General William Barr on March 22.

Mueller's probe into Russian election interference and possible coordination between the Trump campaign and Russia indicted three Russian companies and 34 people, including eight Americans affiliated with the Trump campaign or administration.

As it currently stands, there are now more than 101 known points of contact between the Trump campaign and Russian-government linked people or entities, including 23 meetings or calls.

Sixteen Trump campaign officials are known to have had direct contact with a Russian government official or a Russian-linked operative, and at least an additional nine campaign officials were aware of these contacts.

Trump campaign officials had meetings, calls, and digital correspondence with high-level Russian government officials, billionaires linked to Putin, an accused Russian spy, and hackers enlisted by Russian intelligence to meddle in the 2016 elections.

Here is a timeline of the Trump campaign's known contacts with Russia, compiled with the help of resources from the Moscow Project and the Washington Post.