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Saturday, March 23, 2019

穆勒报告出笼,川普竞选团队勾结俄罗斯间谍被捉奸在床!

本文网址:http://jasmine-action.blogspot.com/2019/03/blog-post_23.html

下面是我在推特上就通俄门事件的部分评论。


国会要求川普的一些竞选助手递交电子邮件,班农和伊万卡顿时吓尿了。班农递交了几千页的相关文件。班农是否将“法制基金”的文件也上交给国会去调查了?




The Mueller report is out — here's everyone who has been charged and convicted in the Russia probe so far
https://www.businessinsider.com/who-has-been-charged-in-russia-investigation-mueller-trump-2017-12

Mueller has submitted his final report — here are all the known contacts between the Trump campaign and Russian government-linked people or entities
https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-campaign-russia-government-contact-timeline-2018-7

穆勒的报告应该很快就会递交给司法部长。

且不说穆勒报告的内容,单只看穆勒调查过程中已经起诉的人:

Paul Manafort马纳福特,川普竞选委员会主席
Rick Gates,马纳福特的副手,川普竞选委员会副主席
科恩:担任川普私人律师12年
George Papadopoulos川普竞选顾问
Roger Stone 罗杰·斯通, 川普的竞选顾问
Michael Flynn川普的首任国家安全顾问,是基辛格在尼克松曾经担任的角色。

上面的这些人都是川普竞选团队的核心成员,除了斯通正在等待审判外,其他人都已经承认有罪甚至已经判刑。

另外,包括川普的大儿子小川普,女婿库什纳等人都有确凿证据在川普竞选期间以各种方式同俄罗斯间谍有各种联系。

川普团队的前十为核心成员,至少有八人同俄罗斯间谍私下勾结。

这些人如果是没有大老板的同意甚至授意,会私自同俄罗斯间谍勾结吗?如果有一或二人私下勾结外国间谍,或许有可能。

但是,川普竞选团队的核心成员几乎有八成同俄罗斯间谍暗地里勾结,狼狈为奸,没有大老板的授意和统一指挥,几乎就是不可能发生的事件。

上述被起诉的或判刑的人,几乎都有一条罪状是撒谎,他们都拼命掩盖他们同俄罗斯间谍的各种联系。

他们为什么要拼命掩盖同俄罗斯人的联系?这必定是有见不得人的勾当,而且必定是曾经有攻守同盟,要统一口径地掩盖同俄罗斯人的联系和各种交易,他们都明知道这是叛国罪。

这些人冒着叛国罪的风险,去同俄罗斯间谍秘密勾结,而得到的结果就是为了帮助川普成功当上总统,所承担的风险则是被判刑入狱。有哪个人会愚蠢到这种程度去干这种蠢事吗?除非是受到川普的指使并且得到川普的某种承诺才会去干这种有巨大风险的卖国勾当。

川粉支持川普的理由之一是川普高智商,会作生意。可一张照片就能证明川普的智商归零了!


前天,3月21日,川普举着这张照片,向记者反复说,上面的红点标的是恐怖组织ISIS在叙利亚的占领区域。下面的图形表示ISIS被统统消灭。

川普将剿灭ISIS完全归功于自己。

可是,剿灭ISIS同川普有一毛钱关系吗?

剿灭ISIS的美军都是奥巴马总统就任期间派去的,川普唯一做的就是反复不断地指责奥巴马总统派遣这些美军,以及下令撤回这些美军。

川普的这种伎俩,就如同将世界上所有死亡的人都归功于他川普一样地弱智,将希特勒、萨达姆、卡扎菲的死亡都说成是他川普派美军予以消灭的同样地颠倒是非、贪天功为己有!真是滑天下之大稽!


3月20日,川普在白宫有又一次攻击特别检察官穆勒,声称他川普获得了很多选票,而穆勒不曾获得一张选票,一个没获得过选票的人居然来调查活动上千万选票的人。
川普还不如干脆说,所有的足球、篮球裁判都不曾进过一个球,有什么权力对场上球员给红牌,将参赛队员罚下场啊?

穆勒调查川普团队通俄门的报告终于完成了。可是,尚未看到穆勒报告之前,一些川粉就开始欢呼胜利了,说川普又赢了。

陆东自称是当今世界最最超前的预言家、阴谋家,居然就闭着眼睛宣布川普胜利了。陆东能将自己混成一个铁杆郭粉加铁杆川粉,那就是双倍的铁杆脑残嘛。

现在人们争论的焦点是通俄门事件究竟是否存在。

穆勒报告中已经汇总了7名川普竞选团队重要成员被起诉、被判刑,分别是上面列出的科恩、马纳福特、菲林、斯通、Gates、Papadopoulos等人,这些人都被坐实秘密勾结俄罗斯间谍来干涉美国大选,帮助川普成功竞选总统。他们还都有一条罪名:撒谎!

他们为什么撒谎?撒了哪些谎?

他们首先是否认同俄罗斯间谍有联系,这是被证明撒谎。

其实,他们最最主要的撒谎是拒不讲出受谁指使去勾结俄罗斯间谍。

另外,川普的儿子、女婿库什纳都在川普大厦同俄罗斯间谍有秘密会晤。科恩在国会作证时已经交待了川普儿子同川普低声耳语:一切都安排好了。

川普当时就对他儿子说:随时向我汇报。

川普竞选团队中除了被起诉的七人外,其他的重要成员就是川普、彭斯、班农、康维、库什纳、小川普、伊万卡。在这14人中,只有彭斯和康维不曾同俄罗斯间谍勾结,能够坐实同俄罗斯间谍有勾结的有9人,占川普团队核心成员的6成。

另外,穆勒已经起诉的俄罗斯方面同川普团队联络的间谍或渗透美国大选的俄罗斯黑客有25人,俄罗斯公司三家。

捉贼捉双。穆勒调查的通俄门事件,已经抓捕的川普团队成员7人,俄罗斯方面多达30人,这岂止是捉贼捉双,简直就是捉奸在床了嘛!

就仅仅根据穆勒已经起诉的37人和公司,说川普团队串通俄罗斯间谍干预美国大选,这是板上钉钉,任何人都无法否认的了。

现在的问题就是:

1. 那些俄罗斯间谍是受谁指使?普廷是否直接给这些间谍下令?
2. 川普团队的那些被起诉、被判刑的人,究竟是受谁指使去勾结俄罗斯间谍?

3. 他们为何要撒谎?要掩盖的真相是什么?
4. 川普团队同俄罗斯间谍勾结的目的是什么?最后使谁受益?
5. 今后是否要起诉川普的儿子小川普以及女婿库什纳?
6. 以何种方式追究川普和普京的责任?
7. 川普是否是服务于俄罗斯的利益?
8. 今后如何防范外国间谍干涉美国大选?

这些问题都是不言自明的。

刘刚
2019年3月23日


川普竞选委员会主席马纳福特



U.S. President Donald Trump's former campaign manager Paul Manafort arrives for a hearing at U.S. District Court in Washington, U.S., November 2, 2017.

马纳福特(Paul Manafort),川普竞选委员会主席。2016年4月,马纳福特同俄罗斯及乌克兰双料间谍康斯坦丁·基里姆尼克(Konstantin Kilimnik)多次共享俄罗斯的间谍信息和数据。

April 2016: Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort shares polling data with Konstantin Kilimnik, a Russian-Ukrainian political operative.

Konstantin Kilimnk, a political operative and former member of Russian intelligence, had been a long-time associate of Manafort, who worked for several years in Ukraine and Eastern Europe as a political consultant and financier.

According to a court filing submitted by Manafort's lawyers, Manafort shared campaign polling data with Kilimnik. The New York Times reported the data was then passed onto Ukrainian oligarchs Serhiy Lyovochkin and Rinat Akhmetov, who reportedly owed Manafort money.

Source:New York Times
-----------------------

April 2016: Manafort and Kilimnik discuss briefing Russian billionaire Oleg Deripaska on the campaign's operations

Manafort inquired if Russian billionaire oligarch Oleg Deripaska knew about Manafort joining the campaign, to which Kilimnik replied, "absolutely." Manafort then asked, "How do we use to get to whole?"

The emails between Manafort and Kilimnik suggest that Manafort sought to take advantage of the influence he had from his role on Trump's campaign, which was unpaid, to make up for a significant financial debt he owed to Deripaska.

Deripaska gave Manafort almost $19 million dollars in 2008 for use of the purchase of a Ukrainian company, but the investment fell through and their relationship went south. It was later revealed in June 2018 that Manafort owed Deripaska another $10 million on top of the previously known $19 million.

Sources:Business Insider,The Atlantic,
--------------------------------------

July 7, 2016: Manafort offers "private briefings" on the campaign to the Kremlin-linked oligarch Oleg Deripaska.
The Washington Post reported in September 2017 that Paul Manafort had, over a period of months, corresponded with Kilmnik on the subject of giving "private briefings" on the Trump campaign to Deripaska, the oligarch to whom Manafort owed tens of millions of dollars.

The emails, which were subsequently turned over to both Special Counsel Mueller's office and to congressional investigators, don't show proof that Deripaska was made aware of the offer or that any private meetings or briefings actually occurred.

Manafort was sentenced to a total of seven and a half years in federal prison earlier this month after facing two multi-count federal indictments charging him with numerous crimes related to fraud and obstruction of justice.

Neither set of charges were explicitly related to the Trump's campaign's communications with Russia, and revolve mostly around Manafort's decades of working on behalf of Eastern European governments.

Manafort went to trial and was convicted on 8 charges of tax and bank fraud in the Eastern District of Virginia in August 2018. He entered into a plea agreement with Mueller ahead of his second trial - but the deal fell apart when Mueller accused Manafort of lying in his conversations with investigators.

Source:Business Insider, Washington Post,Business Insider
----------------------------------------------------------

August 2016: Manafort and Kilimnik have more meetings.


Manafort and Kilimnik agreed to meet in New York twice, and they reportedly did so in early August. The meeting became a subject of interest to investigators, but Kilimnik maintained it was to discuss private matters and had nothing to do with politics or the campaign.

On August 14th, The New York Times published a story revealing Manafort had been secretly paid millions of dollars off the books by Ukrainian president Victor Yanukovych's party.

Soon after, the Associated Press reported that Manafort's political consulting firm had carried out lobbying on behalf of Yanukovych's party in the US, but hadn't registered as a foreign agent with the State Department.

Manafort formally resigned from the Trump campaign on August 19th. His close aide and deputy Rick Gates remained on staff.

Sources: Associated Press, New York Times,Washington Post
-----------------------------------------------------------



Michael Flynn川普的首任国家安全顾问,是基辛格在尼克松曾经担任的角色。

December 22, 2016: Gen. Michael Flynn, a national security advisor on Trump's campaign, reached out to Kislyak regarding a vote at the UN.

An indictment filed by Mueller's office in December 2017 revealed that Flynn contacted Kislyak requesting that Russia "vote against or delay" against a UN resolution regarding Israeli settlements in Palestinian territory.

Flynn struck a plea deal with Mueller to plead guilty on one count of making false statements to the FBI (regarding his communications with Russia) in exchange for cooperation with the special counsel investigation.

Flynn has cooperated with the Mueller probe since December 2017, and has not yet been sentenced. In a December 2018 sentencing memo, Mueller's team recommended a shorter sentence for Flynn, saying he had met with the special counsel's office 19 times and provided early — and invaluable — assistance.

The memo said Flynn "provided firsthand information about the content and interactions between [Trump's] transition team and Russian government officials."

Sources: Washington Post,Business Insider
----------------------------------------

December 29, 2016: Flynn and Kislyak continue to communicate on the subject of US sanctions on Russia.

Flynn and Kislyak called eachother multiple times on December 29th, the day President Obama announced sanctions against Russia and the expulsion of Russian intelligence operatives from the US in response to Russian hacking and interference in the 2016 election.

The calls "occurred between the time the Russian embassy was told about U.S. sanctions and the announcement by Russian President Vladimir Putin that he had decided against reprisals," according to Reuters.

The charges filed against Flynn by the special counsel's office say that Kislyak contacted Flynn on December 31st to inform him that the Kremlin had decided not to impose retaliatory sanctions against the US "at the Trump team's request."

Sources: The Washington Post,Reuters, The New York Times
------------------------------




科恩:担任川普私人律师12年

November 2015: Trump's personal attorney Michael Cohen reaches out to Russian weight-lifter Dmitry Klokov in an attempt to secure a deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin to build a Trump Tower in Moscow.

Ivanka Trump, daughter of President Donald Trump, reportedly first put Cohen and Klokov in contact, according to emails Buzzfeed News reviewed.

In one email, Klokov claimed "he could arrange a meeting between Donald Trump and Putin to help pave the way for the tower."

Cohen then refused the offer, telling Klokov there was an existing agreement to build a Trump Tower between Russia and the Trump Organization.

The nature of Klokov's relationship to Putin is unclear, but he and Cohen exchanged several emails in the fall of 2015.

In December 2018, Cohen pleaded guilty in the special counsel probe for lying about the timing during which the Trump Organization pursued the Trump Tower deal to the House Intelligence Committee in his 2017 congressional testimony.

Mueller's sentencing memo said that "in or around November 2015, Cohen received the contact information for, and spoke with, a Russian national who claimed to be a "trusted person" in the Russian Federation who could offer the campaign "political synergy" and "synergy on a government level," with the Russian national believed to be Klokov.

Source: BuzzFeed, Business Insider
-------------------------------------
January 2016: Cohen reaches out to Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov asking about the Trump Tower deal.

The Kremlin has since confirmed that they received Cohen's email, but did not reply. Cohen then called Peskov's assistant on or around Jan. 20, describing to her his position at the Trump Organization and how the Kremlin could help arrange the Trump Tower deal.

Cohen "requested assistance in moving the project forward, both in securing land to build the proposed tower and financing the construction," prosecutors say.

The Trump Tower deal is coming under renewed scrutiny in light of a recent bombshell Buzzfeed News report claiming that Trump personally directed Cohen to lie about the deal in his September 2017 testimony before the Senate Intelligence Committee.

Sources: Washington Post,US Department of Justice,Buzzfeed News
-------------------------------------

January 9, 2017: Michael Cohen met with a Russian oligarch in Trump Tower.

Cohen and Viktor Vekselberg, a Russian billionaire with ties to the Kremlin, talked about "a mutual desire to strengthen Russia's relations with the United States under President Trump," according to the New York Times.

Andrew Intrater, an American business associate of Vekselberg's who attended the meeting, gave Cohen a $1 million contract for his consulting services shortly after the inauguration.

Source:New York Times
--------------------



瑞克·盖茨(Rick Gates),川普竞选委员会副主席

September 2016: Trump campaign aide Rick Gates makes contact with an unidentified person with ties to Russian intelligence.

A court filing released in March 2018 from special counsel Mueller's office revealed that Rick Gates — Manafort's former deputy — had contacts with an unidentified person connected to Russian intelligence while Gates worked on the Trump campaign.

Those contacts took place during September and October of 2016, according to the special counsel's office.

Gates, along with Manafort, was indicted by a grand jury on 12 counts of conspiracy, money laundering, making false statements to investigators, and failing to register as a foreign agent in October 2017.

In February 2018, Gates made an agreement to plead guilty to one count of making false statements and one count of conspiracy against the United States in exchange for cooperating with Mueller's investigation.

Sources:CNN,Business Insider
---------------------------





帕帕多普洛斯(George Papadopoulos), 川普竞选顾问。在2016年3月24日,帕帕多普洛斯和米夫苏德在伦敦同俄罗斯女谍见面商讨安排川普竞选团队同俄罗斯人见面开会的相关事宜。2016年4月18日,通过米夫苏德的引荐,帕帕多普洛斯同俄罗斯外事委员会主席Ivan Timofeev私下见面,此后,双方多次通过电子邮件和网络视频商讨如何安排川普竞选团队同俄罗斯政府机构建立联系。

2016年4月26日,在伦敦见面时,米夫苏德告知帕帕多普洛斯,俄罗斯间谍机构已经盗取了关于希拉里的丑闻,声称掌握了数千关于希拉里的电子邮件。这比维基解密泄漏希拉里团队的电子邮件要早整整三个月!

Papadopoulos, 29, joined the Trump campaign as an unpaid adviser in March 2016.

But from his low-level position, Papadopoulos took on an outsize role in trying to facilitate communications and set up meetings between the Trump campaign and Russia.

One of his main contacts was Joseph Mifsud, the director of the London Academy of Diplomacy, a for-profit college program that was later shut down. Mifsud boasted of having "substantial connections to Russian officials," according to court documents.

Despite having scant credentials or expertise on Russia, Mifsud became active in elite Russian political circles after one of his interns, a 24-year-old Russian woman, introduced him to several high-level diplomats and scholars, The New York Times reported.

Mifsud even gained admission into the prestigious Valdai Discussion Club, a group of foreign policy scholars who host an annual meeting with Putin.

Sources: The New York Times, Lawfare, Washington Post
-------------------------------------------

April 18, 2016: Mifsud introduced Papadopoulos over email to Ivan Timofeev, a Director at the Kremlin-linked Russian International Affairs Council who claimed to have ties to Russia's foreign ministry.

Papadopoulos and Timofeev exchanged several emails during that period and had at least two Skype conversations, discussing the logistics of setting up a meeting between the Trump campaign and the Russian government.

Sources: The New York Times, US District Court for the District of Columbia
------------------------------------------

April 26, 2016: During a meeting in London, Mifsud told Papadopoulos that the Russians had "dirt" on Hillary Clinton.

In the meeting, Mifsud reportedly claimed the "dirt" on Clinton came in the form of "thousands of emails."

The April meeting took place three months before Wikileaks released approximately 20,000 emails hacked from the server of the Democratic National Committee, which revealed how DNC staffers sought to secure the nomination of Hillary Clinton over Bernie Sanders.

The next month, Papadopoulos told Australian intelligence official Alexander Downer about the Clinton emails over drinks at a swanky London bar. Downer then tipped off US authorities to the conversation, sparking the initial FBI investigation into the Trump campaign's contacts with Russia.

In December 2017, Papadopoulos pleaded guilty to one count of lying to the FBI about his conversations with Mifsud. He served 14 days in prison in November 2018.

Source: The New York Times
-------------------------------------
Ten days after Papadopoulos and Mifsud first made contact in Italy, the two met again — this time with a Russian woman who Papadopoulos described as "Putin's niece" in an email to Trump campaign co-chairman Sam Clovis.

The woman, later identified as Olga Polonskaya, has no relation to Putin.

In April, Papadopoulos and Polonskaya exchanged several emails discussing the possibility of the Trump campaign making a foreign policy trip to Russia.

"We are all very excited by the possibility of a good relationship with Mr. Trump. The Russian Federation would love to welcome him once his candidature would be officially announced," Polonskaya wrote in one email.

In October 2017, Papadopoulos pleaded guilty to making false statements to the FBI regarding his contacts with Russian-linked people, and became a cooperating witness in the Mueller probe.

Sources: The New York Times, US District Court for the District of Columbia

April 29-30, 2016: George Papadopoulos continues to communicate with Mifsud and Polonskaya.

On the 29th, he emailed Polonskaya again about a potential trip to Russia. On the 30th, he reached out to Mifsud to thank him "for his 'critical help' in arranging a meeting between the Campaign and the Russian government."

Source:US Department of Justice
-------------------------------

Timofeev emailed Papadopoulos again on May 8th to inquire about putting him in contact with the US desk at the MFA.

In the following weeks, Timofeev and Papadopoulos had at least one Skype call where Timofeev reported a "good reaction" to the idea of a visit from his colleagues in the foreign affairs ministry.

In a May 13th email to Papadopoulos, Mifsud wrote, "we will continue to liaise through you with the Russian counterparts in terms of what is needed for a high level meeting of Mr. Trump with the Russian federation."

Sources:US Department of Justice
-------------------------------------
May 4, 2016: Timofeev emails Papadopoulos claiming his colleagues in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) were "open to cooperation."

Timofeev emailed Papadopoulos again on May 8th to inquire about putting him in contact with the US desk at the MFA.

In the following weeks, Timofeev and Papadopoulos had at least one Skype call where Timofeev reported a "good reaction" to the idea of a visit from his colleagues in the foreign affairs ministry.

In a May 13th email to Papadopoulos, Mifsud wrote, "we will continue to liaise through you with the Russian counterparts in terms of what is needed for a high level meeting of Mr. Trump with the Russian federation."

Sources:US Department of Justice
-------------------------------

斯通同俄罗斯及维基解密的勾结



罗杰·斯通(Roger Stone)
Early May 2016: Trump campaign advisor Roger Stone meets with a Russian offering him dirt on Hillary Clinton in exchange for $2 million. He declines.

The 2016 meeting between Stone and the Russian, Henry Greenberg, was not disclosed to congressional investigators and unknown until the Washington Post reported on it in June of 2018.

Stone reportedly told Greenberg that Trump "doesn't pay for anything."

In text messages between Stone and Trump campaign communications official Michael Caputo, Stone said Greenberg "wants big &$ for the info--waste of time."

Greenberg, who has also used the last name Oknyansky, has previously worked as an FBI informant but was not doing so at the time of the meeting.

Sources: Washington Post
------------------------

August 14, 2016: Roger Stone direct messages Guccifer 2.0, a persona created by Russian intelligence who claimed responsibility for the hack of the DNC's emails, on Twitter.

"Glad to see you are re-instated," Stone wrote to Guccifer after a previous suspension of his Twitter account had been lifted.

After the Washington Post reported that the DNC was hacked by Russian operatives, Stone responded by writing in Breitbart in July 2016 claiming that Guccifer, "a lone hacker," and not the Russian government carried out the hacking.

Over the following weeks, Stone and Guccifer exchanged several messages on Twitter in which Guccifer expressed admiration for Stone and offered to assist the Trump campaign.

"please tell me if i can help u anyhow," Guccifer wrote in one message.

US intelligence officials had long suspected that Guccifer was either a real person linked to Russian intelligence or a fake persona they had created. In March of 2018, that suspicion was confirmed when Guccifer accidentally revealed himself to be Russian security officer.

In July 2018, the Russian intelligence officers who had created the Guccifer profile were charged by the Special Counsel for conspiracy against the United States, aggravated identity theft, and money laundering in relation to the hacks of the DNC, DCCC, and Clinton campaign.

Sources: Business Insider,JustSecurity, Business Insider ,ABC
--------------------------------

September 9, 2016: Guccifer 2.0 contacts Stone again with data obtained through hacking.
Guccifer 2.0 direct messaged Stone a link to Florida political operative's blog, which published Florida voter turnout data obtained by Guccifer in a hack of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC).

Stone replied, deeming the information "pretty standard."

Source:Wall Street Journal, Business Insider
---------------------------------------------
October 13, 2016: Stone directly messages WikiLeaks over Twitter. They had previously communicated only through an intermediary.
Stone messaged WikiLeaks confronting them with his "defense of Assange and the organization" on Twitter after WikiLeaks put out a statement claiming to have never spoken with Stone.

Stone previously testified under oath before Congress in September 2016 that he had communicated with WikiLeaks through intermediaries, later revealed to be radio host Randy Credico and conspiracy theorist Jerome Corsi.

After asking Stone not to publicly affiliate himself with Wikileaks, Stone told them to "remember who their friends were."

Stone, who has worked as a political consultant for Trump since the 1980s, was arrested and charged with one count of obstruction of justice, five counts of false statements, and one count of witness tampering, in January. He plans to plead not guilty.

The indictment charging Stone alleges that Stone made "multiple false statements to [the House Intelligence Committee] about his interactions regarding Organization 1, and falsely denied possessing records that contained evidence of these interactions" in 2017 testimony. Organization 1 is believed to be WikiLeaks.

Not only is making false statements to Congress a crime, but the indictment said that Stone's misleading testimony deliberated obstructed ongoing investigations by the FBI, House Intelligence Committee, and Senate Intelligence Committee.

Source: The Washington Post, The Atlantic
----------------------------------------



川普团队其他成员同俄罗斯的秘密勾结:


赛辛斯(川普竞选顾问、后来担任司法部长)同俄罗斯的秘密勾结



April 27, 2016: Then-campaign advisors Jeff Sessions and Jared Kushner met with Russian ambassador Sergey Kislyak at a reception before Trump gave a speech on foreign policy at the Mayflower Hotel.

In the speech, which was edited by Papalodopous, Trump vowed to improve relations with Russia by collaborating on "shared interests."

Ambassador Kislyak said he and Sessions discussed policy matters related to Russia, which Sessions denied. US intelligence officials later described them as having had a "substantive conversation."

After the event, Papadopoulos emailed then-campaign manager Corey Lewandowski saying "Putin wants to host the Trump team when the time is right."
Source: Washington Post
-------------------------------------

July 18-20, 2016: Jeff Sessions, J.D. Gordon, and Carter Page all spoke to Russian Ambassador Sergei Kislyak at the Republican National Convention in Cleveland, Ohio.

Trump campaign foreign policy advisors J.D. Gordon and Carter Page told congressional investigators they met Kislyak at an RNC event attended by other diplomats.

Gordon said his interaction with Kislyak wasn't lengthy, but Page told congressional investigators that when he spoke to Kislyak, the subject of American sanctions on Russia "may have briefly come up in some context."

Sessions, who spoke with Kislyak after speaking at a private luncheon, originally did not disclose the meeting to congressional investigators.

Just a day after Trump became the Republican nominee for President, Wikileaks released over 20,000 emails obtained through the hacking of the Democratic National Committee by Russia.

Source:Washington Post,Business Insider
---------------------------------------

September 8, 2016: Sessions met with Ambassador Kislyak in his Washington, DC Senate office.


Sergey Kislyak, Russia's ambassador to the US. Cliff Owen/AP

Sessions said the meeting, which was not originally disclosed during his January 2017 confirmation hearing, was also attended by two or three of his staffers. The Washington Post broke the story two months after the hearing.

In March of 2017, Sessions said they "listened to the ambassador and what his concerns might be," and discussed issues such as terrorism, travel to Russia, and Ukraine in the September 2016 meeting.

"I don't recall any specific political discussions," Sessions remarked.

When Sessions' previously undisclosed contacts with Russians were revealed, several top democrats called on him to resign, accusing him of perjury. Sessions later recused himself altogether from presiding over the Russia investigation, much to Trump's chagrin.

Source:Business Insider,Washington Post
-----------------------------------



川普儿子小川普同俄罗斯的秘密勾结





Donald Trump Jr. Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
Alexander Torshin, a former Russian senator from Putin's party and a former senior official at Russia's central bank told Bloomberg he had dinner with Donald Trump Jr., the president's son, at the annual convention for the National Rifle Association.

The White House confirmed they had met, but denied that they dined together. Torshin also reportedly tried to meet with Trump, an offer turned down by Jared Kushner.

Torshin is now accused of directing an effort to infiltrate American conservative organizations including the National Rifle Association and the National Prayer Breakfast to promote Russian interests, traveling everywhere from Alaska to Tennessee in his efforts.

He has since been sanctioned from the US Treasury Department, meaning he can no longer travel to the US.

Source: The Washington Post,NPR
-------------------------------------

June 3-7, 2016: The son of a prominent Russian real estate developer reaches out to Donald Trump Jr. promising incriminating information about Hillary Clinton.


Russian real estate developer Aras Agalarov (L) talks with his son, singer Emin Agalarov, during a news conference following the 2013 Miss USA pageant at the Planet Hollywood Resort & Casino in Las Vegas, Nevada June 16, 2013. Thomson Reuters

Goldstone contacted Donald Jr. on behalf of one of this clients, musician Emin Agalarov, whose father is a real estate developer with close ties to Putin.

In an email, Goldstone said Agalarov could provide "very high level and sensitive information" that would "incriminate Hillary" and was a part in "Russia and its government's support for Mr. Trump."

Donald Jr. quickly replied: "If it's what you say I love it especially later in the summer." Donald Jr. and Agalarov then spoke on the phone at least twice between June 6th and 7th.

On June 7th, Donald Trump promised "a major speech about Hillary Clinton's crimes."

Sources: Donald Trump Jr.,YouTube, The Washington Post
-------------------------------------

September 20, 2016: Wikileaks and Donald Trump Jr. begin a month-long series of communications over Twitter.

Wikileaks reached out to Trump Jr. to send him the username and password for a website belonging to a "PAC run anti-Trump site."

The US intelligence community now believes "with high confidence" that the Russian government enlisted the help of Wikileaks in disseminating hacked emails from the DNC, according to a report from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence.

They published and distributed thousands of emails hacked from the DNC on the first day of the Democratic National Convention, and later released hacked emails from the email account of Clinton staffer John Podesta the day after the release of the Access Hollywood tape in which Trump bragged about groping women.

Trump Jr. responded the following day, thanking Wikileaks for the information, and telling them he would "ask around" about it. He then forwarded the tweet to several senior campaign officials.

A few weeks later, Wikileaks asked Trump Jr. to "comment/push" an article about Hillary Clinton, which he did. Trump Jr. then inquired about a unpublished leak referenced in one of of Stone's tweets.

On October 12th, Wikileaks requested that Trump Jr. tell his father to tweet out links to Wikileaks stories, which he did.

The messages between Trump Jr. and Wikileaks were turned over to congressional investigators.

Source:The Atlantic, The Office of the Director of National Intelligence
----------------------------------

JD 高丹



September-October 2016: Trump national security advisor JD Gordon communicates with Maria Butina, an accused Russian spy.


Maria Butina, 29, was charged in July 2018 with espionage on behalf of Russia. AP Photo

The Trump campaign's then-national security director JD Gordon had some social interactions with gun rights activist Maria Butina, who was indicted on charges of being a Russian spy in July 2018.

Gordon, a former Pentagon spokesman, met Butina at multiple Republican party events and communicated with her over email before Trump's election in September and October 2016, according to emails reviewed by the Washington Post.

The emails involved discussions of US-Russia relations and some social invitations, in which Gordon invited Butina to a Styx concert, and then to his birthday party.

Prosecutors in Washington, DC are alleging that Butina, 29, infiltrated American right-wing circles and organizations such as the National Rifle Association, to advance Russian government interests without registering as a foreign agent, as is required by US law.

In a statement to the Post, Gordon called the Butina story "sensationalized clickbait," and denied any wrongdoing, arguing that Butina was eager to network and discuss US-Russian relations with a number of Republican officials.

In December, Butina plead guilty to one count of conspiring to act as unregistered foreign agent on behalf of Russian interests.

Sources: Washington Post, Business Insider,New York Times
------------------------------------------------------

November 10, 2016: Emin Agalarov contacts Trump Jr. again.


Emin Agalarov, Donald Trump, and Aras Agalarov at Miss America 2013 Victor Boyoko/Getty Images
Emin Agalarov sent Trump Jr. a text message shortly after the election which read,

"Don!!! Amazing run and a glorious victory!!!!! Congratulations to you and your dad, we are proud and happy for you !!!!!! Always at your disposal here in Russia [] Emin and Aras Agalarov@."

The close relationship between the Agalarov and Trump families is a subject of interest by both the Mueller probe and congressional investigations, which are both looking into the extent to which Aras and Emin Agalarov served as go-betweens for the Trump campaign and Putin.

In June 2018, Emin released a music video for a song titled "You Got Me Good," in which actors playing Trump, Stormy Daniels, Michael Cohen, Hillary Clinton, Ivanka and Jared Kushner, and even Kim Jong-un reenact some of Trump's biggest scandals.

Sources:YouTube,US House of Representatives Select Committee on Intelligence
----------------------------------


川普儿子小川普同俄罗斯的秘密勾结


December 2016: Jared Kushner meets with Ambassador Kislyak to discuss setting up a communications back-channel between the Trump transition team and Russia.


Jared Kushner. REUTERS/Lucas Jackson
A month after Trump's election, White House advisor Jared Kushner and Russian ambassador Kislyak met to discuss setting up a "secret and secure communications channel" between the Russian government and Trump's transition team.

According to intelligence briefings reported on by the Washington Post, Kushner suggested using Russian diplomatic equipment and resources to facilitate the communications.

The meeting, which was not disclosed until March of 2017, was also attended by General Michael Flynn.

Kushner also reportedly met with Sergey Gorkov, the President of Russian state-run bank VEB, as part of the transition's efforts to establish a back-channel.

Such a back-channel never materialized, but the meeting became a subject of the Mueller probe and congressional investigations.

Sources:The Washington Post ,CNN
-------------------------------

埃里克·普林斯(Erik Prince)


Erik Prince, 48, is one of America's most prominent defense contractors. Susan Walsh/AP
In January 2017, Erik Prince, the founder of private security firm Blackwater and the brother of Secretary of Education Betsy DeVos, met with Kirril Dmitriev, a Russian billionaire and the head of an investment firm sanctioned by the US Treasury Department.

Prince maintained that his meeting with Dmitriev was a chance encounter that only happened because they both happened to be at a luxury hotel in the Seychelles at the same time.

But George Nader, an American-Lebanese businessman who attended the meeting and is a cooperating witness in the Mueller probe, said the meeting was not only planned in advance, but was part of an effort to create an unmonitored back channel between the White House and the Kremlin.

In June 2018, Prince confirmed he "cooperated" with the Mueller probe, and allowed the special counsel's office to review communication records from his phone and computer.

Source: ABC News, Washington Post
----------------------------------


Russian real estate developer Aras Agalarov (L) talks with his son, singer Emin Agalarov, during a news conference following the 2013 Miss USA pageant at the Planet Hollywood Resort & Casino in Las Vegas, Nevada June 16, 2013. Thomson Reuters
Goldstone contacted Donald Jr. on behalf of one of this clients, musician Emin Agalarov, whose father is a real estate developer with close ties to Putin.

In an email, Goldstone said Agalarov could provide "very high level and sensitive information" that would "incriminate Hillary" and was a part in "Russia and its government's support for Mr. Trump."

Donald Jr. quickly replied: "If it's what you say I love it especially later in the summer." Donald Jr. and Agalarov then spoke on the phone at least twice between June 6th and 7th.

On June 7th, Donald Trump promised "a major speech about Hillary Clinton's crimes."

Sources: Donald Trump Jr.,YouTube, The Washington Post
-----------------------------------------------------

June 9, 2016: Trump campaign officials meet Russian lobbyists in Trump Tower.

Russian lawyer Natalia Veselnitskaya speaks during an interview with The Associated Press in Moscow, Russia on April 22, 2018. AP Photo/Dmitry Serebryakov
In what is now known as the infamous "Trump Tower meeting," Donald Trump Jr, Jared Kushner, and Paul Manafort met with Russian attorney and Kremlin affiliate Natalia Veselnitskaya, as well as a four other people affiliated with Russia in Trump Tower in Manhattan.

The Trump campaign attended the meeting under the impression that they would receive the damaging information about Clinton they were promised. But Veselnitskaya came with nothing on Hillary Clinton. Her mission was instead to prove that major Democratic donors were evading taxes, and to lobby against the Magnitsky Act.

The Magnitsky Act, passed in 2012, freezes the assets and real estate and bars entry to the US for high-level Russian officials suspected of committing human rights abuses. In retaliation for the Act, Russia banned US adoptions of Russian children.

Veselnitskaya later said Donald Jr. seemed receptive to re-visiting the Magnitsky Act if his father were elected. Donald claimed Veselnitskaya was there in an unofficial capacity.

Subsequent reporting, however, suggests Veselnitskaya was in fact working on behalf of the Kremlin at the time. A memo she brought with her to the meeting almost identically matched one written by Russia's chief prosecutor.

Sources: The New York Times,Bloomberg, Business Insider
------------------------------------------------------



In this Friday, July 8, 2016, file photo, Carter Page, then adviser to U.S. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, speaks at the graduation ceremony for the New Economic School in Moscow, Russia. Associated Press/Pavel Golovkin
Trump campaign foreign policy advisor Carter Page went on a trip to Russia to give a speech at the commencement ceremony for the New Economic School in Moscow, Russia.

While there, he met with Andrey Baranov, head of investor relations at Russian state oil company Rosneft, and with Russian deputy prime minister Arkady Dvorkovich.

Page became under investigation by the FBI in September 2016 for pursuing contacts with Russians under sanction by the Magnitsky Act, including the CEO of Rosneft.

After he stepped down from his role in the Trump campaign in fall 2016, the FBI obtained a Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court (FISC) to surveil Page's communications. They suspected him of being a foreign agent engaging in intelligence operations on behalf of the Russian government.

Page, however, was never charged with a crime.

Sources: Business Insider, New York Times
---------------------------------

安东尼·斯卡拉姆齐


January 17-20, 2017: Anthony Scaramucci, then a member of the Trump transition team's executive committee, met with Dmitriev.



Anthony Scaramucci. Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
Scaramucci, who later served a 10-day stint as White House communications director, spoke with Dmitriev at the Davos World Economic Forum.

After meeting with Dmitriev, Scaramucci gave an interview with a Russian news agency in which he criticized Obama's sanctions for increasing anti-American sentiment in Russia.

Sources: New York Times,Russia Beyond
------------------------------------

相关的俄罗斯人物



密斯福德


Alex van der Zwaan


Aras Agalarov和他的儿子


Emin Agalarov, Donald Trump, and Aras Agalarov at Miss America 2013


Maria Butina


Natalia Veselnitskaya


俄罗斯驻美国大使Sergey Kislyak, Russia's ambassador


Yevgeny Prigozhin

Special counsel Robert Mueller submitted his final report into his nearly two-year-long investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election and the Trump campaign's contacts with Russia to Attorney General William Barr on March 22.

Mueller's probe into Russian election interference and possible coordination between the Trump campaign and Russia indicted three Russian companies and 34 people, including eight Americans affiliated with the Trump campaign or administration.

As it currently stands, there are now more than 101 known points of contact between the Trump campaign and Russian-government linked people or entities, including 23 meetings or calls.

Sixteen Trump campaign officials are known to have had direct contact with a Russian government official or a Russian-linked operative, and at least an additional nine campaign officials were aware of these contacts.

Trump campaign officials had meetings, calls, and digital correspondence with high-level Russian government officials, billionaires linked to Putin, an accused Russian spy, and hackers enlisted by Russian intelligence to meddle in the 2016 elections.

Here is a timeline of the Trump campaign's known contacts with Russia, compiled with the help of resources from the Moscow Project and the Washington Post.


Friday, March 15, 2019

FBI以川普作诱饵,钓上普廷这条大鲨鱼

本文网址:https://jasmine-action.blogspot.com/2019/03/fbi.html

早在川普还未被提名候选人之前,FBI就有一个专门团队调查川普团队同俄罗斯的关系,这个团队由丽萨(Lisa Page)和彼得(Peter Strzok)牵头。后来,他们都被解雇。解雇之前,他们将报告转交给穆勒。

最近,公布了他们在国会就此问题作证的部分资料。


https://youtu.be/Du0ueDJ_yVM


这个评论中节选了丽萨在作证时的几段证词。

按照丽萨的说法,根据FBI所掌握的材料,在川普竞选期间,如果FBI公开他们的调查材料,完全能够阻止川普成为候选人。

当被问及为何他们不这样做的时候,Lisa说FBI是保守、中立的机构。

丽萨继续说,无论川普当选总统还是不当选总统,FBI都会继续调查川普同俄罗斯间谍之间的关系,任何美国人同俄罗斯间谍有过这么复杂的关系,都是FBI感兴趣的。但这种调查未必会引起重视。但是,川普当选总统,性质就完全不一样了。

如此看来,FBI在利用川普在钓大鱼啊。如果川普不当总统,俄罗斯干涉美国大选这件事就会不了了之,拿不到台面上。一旦川普当选总统,普廷这个大鱼就被钓上来了。

彼得在作证时说,川普团队的人同俄罗斯间谍相互利用,这是任何美国人都不会如此猖狂,都知道那是重罪。

刘刚
2019年3月15日

俄罗斯黑社会助推川普,并威胁证人

本文网址:https://jasmine-action.blogspot.com/2019/03/blog-post_15.html

下面是美国一个作家Patrick Simpson刚刚发的一个推文:

https://twitter.com/patrickLSimpson/status/1106449565471961088
(在特朗普的统治下,证人保护已被俄罗斯黑手党渗透)



他写的一篇文章名为:

Under Trump, Witness Protection has been infiltrated by the Russian Mafia
https://thesternfacts.com/under-trump-witness-protection-has-been-infiltrated-by-the-russian-mafia-f6e4825f10a5

这篇文章很精彩。

一个庞大的俄罗斯黑社会在美国是无孔不入,他们开多家航空公司,但却用于贩毒;建立讨债公司,讨债手段主要就是要强奸人家的老婆;建立基金,类似于银行;游说美国政要;干涉美国选举;他们通过科恩,安全顾问Flynn,Felix Sater同川普家族密切联系。


Kocharov Partner Alexander Nogueira with the Trump family.


The Trincher family


The Web connecting Gitman and his associates to the Fake Debt Portfolios and Private Airlines


Flynn是川普任命的国家安全顾问。但他因为俄罗斯、乌克兰作说客等行为被判多项重罪。他刚当上国家安全顾问,就秘密会见俄罗斯大使,策划如何取消美国对俄罗斯的制裁。国家安全顾问居然是叛国罪。


Felix Sater是原苏联人,在8岁时移民美国,同川普的前律师科恩从小就是朋友。早在2015年,Felix Sater就给科恩发邮件,声称他能让普廷帮助川普当总统。

美国的电视上有很多对Felix Sater的采访。


早在1991年,Sater在酒吧里寻衅滋事,用酒瓶子将人打伤致残,被判刑,期间他主动坦白交待了一系列的金融诈骗犯罪和黑手党犯罪团伙,成为FBI的重要线人,检察官 Loretta Lynch将其犯罪档案全部封存。为此, Loretta Lynch后来升任司法部长时,国会还特别为此案进行讯问。

Sater后来成为川普的重要助手,川普的Soho项目主要是Sater主抓,川普在莫斯科的川普大厦更是由Sater牵线搭桥才搞起来的,没有Sater,Soho和莫斯科川普大厦几乎就不可能存在。可是,川普几次在宣誓后作证时,一口咬定他就不认识Sater.

How a Lawyer, a Felon and a Russian General Chased a Moscow Trump Tower Deal

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/29/us/politics/trump-russia-felix-sater-michael-cohen.html


这张照片上是川普和Sater在交头接耳。


这都是报纸上发表过的川普同Sater在一起的照片。

还有很多川普同Sater私下会面的照片。可川普就是一口咬定他不认识Sater!

2015年,川普说:"Felix Sater, boy, I have to even think about it. I'm not that familiar with him."

有川普这样瞪着眼睛撒谎的吗?

Sater的父亲是俄罗斯一个最著名的黑社会的主要头目。西方媒体报道Sater时,将其称为“间谍、罪犯、黑手党”。他很早就成为FBI的线人,但应该是多料间谍。

Felix Sater, the spy, criminal, and mafia-linked executive tied to Trump Tower Moscow, explained
https://www.vox.com/2018/12/6/18127229/trump-felix-sater-tower-moscow-spy

Felix Sater: the business partner Donald Trump wants nothing to do with
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-06-04/felix-sater-long-time-business-partner-to-donald-trump/9815904


A Trump associate bragged that a business deal with Putin could “get Donald elected”

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/8/28/16215710/felix-sater-trump-russia

下面的这篇文章的标题是:Sater是谁?为何川普如此害怕他?

Who Is Felix Sater, and Why Is Donald Trump So Afraid of Him?


https://www.thenation.com/article/who-is-felix-sater-and-why-is-donald-trump-so-afraid-of-him/

Sater在酒吧里用啤酒瓶子将人的脸毁容,神经受损。却原来,美国总统也怕俄罗斯的黑社会啊!


早在尚未提名候选人之前,FBI就有一个专门团队调查川普团队同俄罗斯的关系,这个团队由丽萨(Lisa Page)和彼得(Peter Strzok)牵头。后来,他们都被解雇。解雇之前,他们将报告转交给穆勒。

最近,公布了他们在国会就此问题作证的部分资料。


https://youtu.be/Du0ueDJ_yVM


这个评论中节选了丽萨在作证时的几段证词。

按照丽萨的说法,根据FBI所掌握的材料,在川普竞选期间,如果FBI公开他们的调查材料,完全能够阻止川普成为候选人。

当被问及为何他们不这样做的时候,Lisa说FBI是保守、中立的机构。

丽萨继续说,无论川普当选总统还是不当选总统,FBI都会继续调查川普同俄罗斯间谍之间的关系,任何美国人同俄罗斯间谍有过这么复杂的关系,都是FBI感兴趣的。但这种调查未必会引起重视。但是,川普当选总统,性质就完全不一样了。

如此看来,FBI在利用川普在钓大鱼啊。如果川普不当总统,俄罗斯干涉美国大选这件事就拿不到台面上。一旦川普当选总统,普廷这个大鱼就被钓上来了。

彼得在作证时说,川普团队的人同俄罗斯间谍相互利用,这是任何美国人都不会如此猖狂,都知道那是重罪。

刘刚
2019年3月15日

Wednesday, March 13, 2019

亡羊补牢,为时太晚:川普宣布禁飞波音737Max

本文网址: https://jasmine-action.blogspot.com/2019/03/737max.html



Trump orders Boeing 737 Max 8 and 9 to be grounded

2019年3月13日,川普总统宣布禁飞波音737Max 9 和波音737Max 10.

波音公司早在两个多月前就发现波音737 Max存在软件程序故障,导致该机发生事故。

在川普总统宣布禁飞之前,我就在推特上发文,批评川普总统因为关闭美国政府使得波音公司要求停飞该型飞机的请求被耽搁一个多月,导致飞机再次失事。

我的推文本意是提醒中文网友尽快通知自己亲友不要乘坐波音737Max,并敦促美国政府立即亡羊补牢,尚为时不晚。可是,竟有众多中国脑残楞说我是精神病,说此事同川普无关,还说我是黑川普。真是拿这些脑残没办法。

这是我昨天推文的链接:

https://twitter.com/LiuGang8964/status/1105842751076220928

Report: U.S. government shutdown delayed Boeing ‘safety fix’
https://africatimes.com/2019/03/13/report-u-s-government-shutdown-delayed-boeing-safety-fix/

川普关闭美国政府,终于让人看到所付出的惨重代价了。

总统任性,是要以人民的生命为代价地。

波音737-Max连续失事,不过是为川普关闭政府所能看到的代价之一。

川普总该为这些受难者做出应有的赔偿吧。

A大总统A @AA92866172:全球一万多驾波音737。掉个两驾。出事率也是万分之二。安全性还是很高的!

刘刚:看好了,这美国的华尔街时报、纽约时报这几天的关注焦点。说的是波音737 Max的失事是由于波音公司对该机种的一个控制软件最近更新过程中有Bug,第一架飞机失事时就发现了这个问题。波音公司向美国的政府机构飞行管理局提出停飞737Max, 但这个谈判由于美国政府关闭35天而延期到4月份。你是看不懂英文吧

A大总统A @AA92866172:那要怪国会不拨款导致川普关闭政府。还要怪选民选出的议员不配合总统,还要怪选民的父母生下个投票的选民!

qxz799 @qxz799:波音商業公司正常運營技術升級,管美國政府屁事。又不是政府主導技術部門,你拿不到勞工證找政府背,這破事管川普政府什麼事

虎 虎 虎 @yzscHHH:这也是川普的责任.?

bp_wang @bp_wang:波音也算政府部门?也需要关闭?

JasonAyao @AyaoJason:你发烧45度多久了?没烧死?

LI炘 @LI15205299:理解不了737失事于川普有什么必然联系,川普没有说让你一定要坐737吧,难道波音737是川普他家制造的?你不是黑是什么?为了迎合中共连基本逻辑都不讲了吗?岂有此理。

LI炘 @LI15205299:牵强附会,乱点鸳鸯谱。川普关闭美国政府,又不是为了波音737。风马牛不相及的事,在你这样的所谓学者嘴里就可以牵强到一起,你怎么不说是因为共产党的谈判耽误了波音737的改进呢?按你的逻辑,可以把这件事乱点到任何一个事件的发生上!没意思极了。

LI炘 @LI15205299:感觉这次波音出事完全是刘刚故意造成的,假如刘刚这个人在三十六天前向全世界宣布波音的问题,完全可以挽救几百个活生生的生命,结果他就是秘而不宣,活活的搞死几百条生命,看来刘刚 必须以死谢罪。这样可以吗?刘刚伟大学者。我看就这样把波音的事杀你来还几百条生命吧。😂😂😂为了舔已经不顾腚了

LI炘 @LI15205299:独立到牵强附会,乱点鸳鸯谱。这样的独立还是少点儿好。这次的波音事件就是这个特立独行的人造成的。罪该万死。

🌏地球往事 🌏 @GXr5CVudQbYPXtw:這?和特朗普有關係嗎🙄🙄


刘刚:是没有太大关系。我转这篇英文报道,只是想说明这架飞机失事同中国政府没关系。

有阴谋论者声称这架飞机失事是由于中国公司华为等公司通过控制飞机的导航系统导致这架飞机失事,目的就是要用间谍手段向川普施压,迫使川普在中美贸易谈判中签盟下之约。我不过是说,美国政府比中国政府的责任更大。



华为是间谍公司,中国也是不好。

但你不能但凡是美国飞机失事,就说是华为对美国通缉孟晚舟的报复行动。

也不能一遇到跑肚拉稀,就是说是习近平给你吃了泻药啊。

Hill @bigdadyhill:波音应该给所有的客户一份停飞建议,光给美国政府有什么用,美国政府能让埃航停飞波音的某个机型吗?波音已经是最安全的飞机公司了,不坐波音难道要坐图154?

刘刚:你是说如果你是那个发现这个Bug的软件工程师,你会向所有的国家发公函,要求他们立即停飞波音737Max?

即便我是川普,我都会比他提前一天宣布这个决定。

我昨天转发波音737Max的失事原因的新闻,就是为了让我的亲友们不要搭乘波音737Max,我通知几个正在旅行的亲友不要搭乘这种飞机。

如果川普提前几天宣布这个决定,至少是让我少浪费时间去为我的亲友担心啊。

川普的这个月至少是因为政府关闭而迟到了一个月,如果继续拖延,就是属于不作为,这就是川普的责任了。

闲来吃瓜 @djay12341:刘大湿的结论过度解读了报纸报道。 报道确实提及政府关门是造成延迟了停飞决定的原因之一, 但没提出更多证据来支持这种说法,更令人信服的原因是波音本身拖拉不为造成悲剧

刘刚:我解读什么了?

那报道中说的就是波音公司发现了软件错误,向美国政府的航管机构提出请求要求禁飞737 Max飞机。但因为政府关闭,航管机构将这个谈判推迟到4月份。

如果没有飞机再次失事,川普今天的这个禁飞宣布也会推迟到4月份。

如果政府不关闭,川普就会在一个月前宣布禁飞。

这些都是明摆着的。还需要人帮你解读么?

你还需要什么证据么?

你是否认为川普今天不应该宣布禁飞决定啊?

或者是说川普可以不管这件事,任由波音公司去协调么?

如果你将你生产的毒大米通过中国进出口公司出口到全世界,你认为你能够挨门挨户地去回收这些大米么?



很多中国川粉根本就不看新闻报道,就闭着眼睛来洗地。只要一说川普,他们就会上来大喊大叫跟川普没关系。

下面我就列出几个美国主流媒体今天发布的一些照片,看看川普川普同波音公司的关系。


2018年3月28日,川普在波音公司执行长丹尼斯陪同下参观游览波音公司并发表讲话。


直至3月13日凌晨,只有美国的航管局FAA还在坚持力挺波音公司737Max不存在安全隐患问题。卫星数据显示,目前大多数国家都停飞波音737Max,只有美国继续让737Max飞行,加拿大也刚刚发布禁飞737Max, 不允许737Max在加拿大境内过境、起飞、或降落。目前在加拿大上空的737Max只有六架。


根据2019年2月27日的报道,美国总统在越南进行川金会期间,促成越南购买波音公司的200架波音737Max飞机。这是川普总统出席这个127亿美金合同的签字仪式,左侧是波音商务飞机公司CEO Kevin McAllister。



帕特里克·迈克尔·沙纳汉(英语:Patrick Michael Shanahan,1954年6月5日-)是美國商人和唐纳德·特朗普政府官員,以及現任代理美國國防部長。沙納漢一直不停涉獵波音不同的軍工業務,建立了對國防不淺的了解。起初1986年入職,負責電腦服務以及參與波音777計劃。

目前挪威、瑞典等欧洲国家已经向法庭提出诉讼,要求波音公司赔偿因禁飞波音737Max所造成的损失。





刘刚
2019年3月13日










翻船撑船两大阵营

久不上独评,突然发现这里分成翻船撑船两大阵营。

我还真不知道我被划进哪一个阵营。

但我必须声明,我哪个阵营都不是,谁都不是我永久的战友,谁都不是我永久的敌人。我上网发文,不过是表达我在思维时空的此时此地的看法而已。换一个时空点,也许会有不同看法。我有不是某党某派,没有义务去永久保持一个被人规定的理想,也没有责任去为某党某派去奋斗终生。

下面是我在推特上同网友互动的几个推文。

我更多的是坚持对某些政治领袖的质疑,而不是对政治领袖的赞美和歌颂。

赞美政治领袖,同对皇帝山呼万岁一样都是奴才哲学,是太监的毛病。

在民主自由国家,质疑和监督政治领袖才是公民的责任。赞美和歌颂领袖那只是跟班们的义务,不是公民应尽的义务。

川普和希拉里竞选期间,我更倾向于质疑希拉里。当然不是因为她是女性,而是因为她在政治舞台上时间更久,劣迹暴露得比较多。

川普当选后,我更多地质疑川普,当然不是因为他名叫川普,而是因为俄罗斯间谍干涉美国大选结果。

川普律师在国会作证说过,川普如果在2020年失败,将不会和平地离开白宫。

屁大个事,川普就关闭政府,宣布进入紧急状态,这不就是要解散国会、宣布戒严、废除大选结果的节奏嘛。

这是任何一个独裁者在上台执政过程中都要走的几步。

可就有一群中国人将川普当成是中国的救世主。

川普撒谎,很多中国人跟着起哄说是谋略。

川普建墙,一群中国人跟着喊为了让美国伟大。

国会质疑建墙,川普宣布进入紧急状态。

这比李鹏宣布戒严不是要恶劣几万倍吗?

如此发展下去,下次选举,川普没当选,川普是否会宣布全国戒严啊?

如果美国人上街反对川普,川普会使用B52吧。

我坚持认为人类只能自己拯救自己,不能指望一个英雄或者是神来帮你灭掉恶魔。任何人的权力不受到制约,都会变成一个恶魔,恶魔作恶的程度,是同你赋予它的不受制约的权力的大小成正比。当人们无条件地扶持一个所谓的英雄去战胜一个恶魔的时候,你无疑是在制造一个更大的恶魔。川普和郭文贵都不例外。

川普当选总统,已经是查实了俄罗斯间谍有组织有预谋地利用间谍手段来干涉美国选情。这就如同在赌场里,有俄罗斯间谍利用间谍手段将看不见的牌变成是对川普来说是明牌,帮助川普赢钱。这对于任何一个有职业道德的赌徒来说,都会主动退还这些用不正当手段赢来的利益。

可川普怎么说?

川普每天在说No Russian Collusion。说俄罗斯间谍将暗牌变成明牌之前并没有同他串谋。他能看到底牌同俄罗斯间谍无关!

有这样玩牌的嘛?你会跟这样的人一道玩牌么?

有网友说:川普只是强势,离独裁十万八千里呢。

希特勒通过竞选当上总理的时候,上面还有总统制约呢。初上台的两年里离独裁十万八千光年呢。

一个独裁者,总是喜欢同其它的独裁者打交道、做交易。中国和俄国都更加希望美国能够出现强势总统,能够一言九鼎的总统。

从这一点上来说,中国和俄国都应该是力挺川普,希望他当总统时间越长越好,希望他能在美国成为真正的主宰者。

希特勒可是完全没有借助外国间谍力量竞选成功的。

而川普背后,不仅有俄罗斯间谍,还有中国间谍。

幸亏美国的民主制度比当年德国的民主制度更加健全,否则,你可以想象外国间谍会如何搞垮美国。


中国超限战的精髓是:

给我十个黑客,我能让全世界变成聋子瞎子。

给我十个华尔街操盘手,我能让美国的金融系统一夜之间崩溃。

给我十个职业间谍外加透光眼,我能让美国的赌场一夜之间输个精光。

高科技所带来的破坏性能量,要远远超越它给人类带来的建设性能量。

爱因斯坦的理论可以用于核电站,也可以用来制造原子弹。

你十年就建设一个核电站,敌人可以用一颗核弹让你的核电站及周围城市顷刻间变成废墟。

世贸中心,被几个恐怖分子摧毁,双方代价的成本比例是万分之一。

高科技在民主自由社会是主要被用于发展和建设,而在邪恶社会是被发展破坏性武器。前者的成本和难度要远远大于后者。

我这里讲的是要首先遵守文明规则,但我们必须承认中国和俄国就是要挑明了要搞超限战,就是要不择一切手段、不遵守规则,利用黑客进行各种偷、盗、抢,以至于发展到破坏文明社会的选举规则,扰乱你的金融系统。你是非要假设这种超限战不存在。

美国的民主自由制度再完善,面对这种超限战也是不堪一击。

川大爷同希大爷太多相似之处。他们都神经质,希大爷是艺术型的神经质,大多数时间都是在搞艺术、欣赏建筑,川大爷是商人型的神经质,是在官场里玩生意。

川大爷的竞选委员会几乎是成了一个犯罪团伙,可川大爷每天都在说这些人同他川普没有一毛钱关系。

美国FBI应该掌握许多中国和俄国间谍干涉美国的证据,只是他们无权将这些证据公布于众。最近释放的华为及很多华人间谍事件,应该是FBI有选择的释放的信息,那个同川普一道照相的老鸨也应该是FBI故意有选择释放的信息,是用这种方式来警告川普和中国。

刘刚
2019年3月13日

Tuesday, March 12, 2019

《解析經濟學》11.7 愚公和山姆关于贸易的对话

本文网址:https://jasmine-action.blogspot.com/2019/03/117.html

我写的《解析经济学》,有很多人看不懂,说是其中的公式太多太复杂。那我就只好用最最通俗的语言来讲解中美贸易战的相关问题。

第11章 進出口貿易的定性分析
https://jasmine-action.blogspot.com/2019/03/11.html

《解析經濟學》11.7 愚公和山姆关于贸易的对话
https://jasmine-action.blogspot.com/2019/03/117.html

第12章中美贸易摩擦
https://jasmine-action.blogspot.com/2019/05/12.html

第13章 如何化解贸易逆差
https://jasmine-action.blogspot.com/2019/05/13.html

--------------


11.7 愚公和山姆关于贸易的对话

目前,中国和美国政在进行中美贸易谈判,主要目的就是如何消除中国对美国的角贸易逆差。按照我们上述讲述的理论,贸易逆差是绝对有利,那么,为何美国要拼命减少贸易逆差,而中国甚至要尽全力争取贸易顺差呢?这是一个令人费解的问题。

为了能够通俗地理解这个费解的问题,我不妨编造一段愚公和山姆大叔的童话故事,用最最通俗的方法来帮助人们理解中美之间的贸易谈判,以及双方在贸易谈判中的目标和争执焦点。这段故事纯属虚构,请勿对号入座。

愚公和山姆大叔做买卖,结果是造成啦大量的贸易逆差:愚公每年送给山姆三千多亿美元自家生产的产品,换回来的是三千多亿美元山姆签字的三千多亿美元白纸条。山姆不解,就找愚公谈判。

山姆:愚公大爷啊,你为何只将你家生产的产品送给我们,而不购买我们生产的产品啊?

愚公:我家仆人勤劳,喜欢劳作,生产的东西太多,自家人吃不完,只好廉价送给你们。

山姆:但是,你手握几万亿美元,每年净收三千多亿美金,那美元唯一的作用就是来够买我家生产的产品,你如果不来买我家的产品,你的美元就是废纸啊。

愚公:你家生产的产品没什么是我喜欢的。

山姆:您老人家对我家产品没有需求,可你家仆人是非常需求我家的产品啊,他们可都喜欢我家生产的汽车啊。

愚公:咱家仆人天生就不喜欢汽车。再说他们的工资太低,买不起你家的汽车。

山姆:你喜欢玩飞机大炮航母导弹,可你家仆人未必跟你一样都喜欢飞机大炮啊。你为何不将你手握的几万亿美元分发给你家仆人,让他们自己来决定是否喜欢买我家的汽车呢?

愚公:咱家仆人只会抬轿子,从来就不喜欢坐轿子,更不会开汽车了。顺便问一下,你家养的驴,除了耕田、劳作之外,还需要玩汽车么?

山姆:那你也该买些我家生产的饲料,让你家仆人吃饱吃好,干活更有劲啊。

愚公:咱家仆人前世都是奴隶,命贱,他们吃的是草,挤出的是奶。他们都是自己找食物吃,吃不惯你家的牛排面包。

山姆:你手握的美元可会贬值啊。如果不尽快花掉,那可就真成了一堆废纸了。特别是有朝一日发生战乱,或是我家倒闭了,你拿着我给你开的白条,我也不认账了。

愚公:你可别逗了。世界上有谁不知道你山姆大叔财大气粗腰桿子硬,说你山姆大叔会赖账,打死我,我也不信啊。

山姆:那你究竟什么时候花掉你手里的几万亿美元啊?

愚公:等我看到你家的非卖品上架的时候。

山姆:那都是什么?

愚公:第一是你家的航母,第二是你家的隐形女人,第三是你家发明的高科技。

山姆:你是癞蛤蟆想吃天鹅肉,做梦吧,你休想碰到这些东西的一根毫毛。

愚公:那我就等到你将这些东西报废的时候,或者是专利失效之日。

山姆:报废的时候会自动毁掉,我是宁可将它们都毁灭掉,也不卖给你。

愚公:那我就用我手里的美元雇用间谍去你家里盗取高科技。

山姆:你为何就只满足你自己的邪念欲望,而不顾你家仆人的人权啊?

愚公:咱家仆人前生就是奴隶,我解救了他们,他们对我感恩戴德,跪求给我当奴才。我养活他们,让他们温饱,这就是他们所期望的最大的人权。

山姆:我就不明白了,你为什么就那么喜欢美元啊,那东西握在手里,不就是废纸吗?

愚公:我就喜欢美元。我的美元越多,就证明我越富有。我也不明白了,我白白送给你几千亿美元的物品,你为何就不高兴呢?

山姆:因为你送给我的产品在我家堆积如山,这使得我家人都变得游手好闲,失去工作,失业率升高。

愚公:我更不明白了,为何一定要工作啊?

山姆:不工作,就买不起牛奶面包。

愚公:你不是说我给你送去的牛奶面包都过剩的腐烂发霉吗?你为何不将这些牛奶面包免费发给那些失业人员啊?你连温饱权都保障不了,如何谴责他人不保障人权?

山姆:是你的产品砸了他们的饭碗,使得他们失去了工作。

愚公:当前的工作种类成千上万,唱歌跳舞都能赚大钱。尽管让他们转行去干其它能赚钱的工作嘛。之所以有人失业,完全是因为你管理不善,治理国家不利。不能说是我给你提供了免费产品,就使得他们失业了。

山姆:你说得也有道理。但我找你谈判,是来解决贸易逆差问题,我们当前最主要的问题是如何让你用你手中的美元来购买我家的产品。

愚公:你说有什么法子?说来听听。

山姆:这个好办。第一,你需要将人民币变成自由兑换貨幣,不要繼續操控貨幣。

愚公:这法子灵验?人民币自由兑换,你家产品就卖出去了?

山姆:是啊。只要你不管制汇率,你家其他人就能用手中人民幣换得美元,然后就会用美元来购买我家的产品。

愚公:这法子听起来是管用。可是,那样一来,我家的僕人就會亂花錢,不再聽話,不好控制了。更加糟糕的是,我家仆人一旦手裡有了美元,就會偷渡去你家,让你家里一年之内就会涌入上亿难民,你准备好接收这些难民了吗?

山姆:第二个法子是你降低进口关税。

愚公:我就是将关税降低到零,我家要买你什么产品,以及买多少,还是我一个人做主,因为没有我的批准,其他人就拿不到美元,你让他们如何去买你家的产品?降低进口关税了,只要我不愿意买你的产品,结果还是一样。我看这法子不灵。

山姆:另外一个法子就是你让人民币增值,提高人民币对美元的汇率,这可是对你家绝对有利的事情。

愚公:你说说看,人民币升值,对我有哪些益处?

山姆:你怎么连这个都看不出来啊。如果人民币升值一倍,你原来卖给我家的3千亿美元的产品,就能卖6千亿美元了。

愚公:你是说,如果我将人民币升值100倍,我原来每年卖给你的6千亿美金的产品,你愿意付给我60万亿美金么?如果你能保证人民币升值后,你还是会购买我的这些产品,如果你能承诺这一点,我愿意立即将人民币增值100倍。

山姆:我家情况同你家不同,我家实行自由市场经济,各个消费者会根据市场行情来决定买谁的产品及买多少产品。我跟你不一样,我无权为消费者决定他们该买谁的产品以及该买多少产品。我无法为你做出这种承诺。

愚公:这就是说,我让人民币增值,你家购买我的产品的数量就会大大降低喽?

山姆:那自然是。你想啊,我家的GDP也就只有20万亿美金,人们每年手里能拿到的美金也不超过20万亿美金,我家人将全部收入都用来购买你家产品,也不可能买60万亿的产品啊。

愚公:那你说说,人民币升值后,我家的产品向你家的出口降低了,那些生产这些产品的仆人就不会失业吗?你又不象我这样大方,绝对不会将你家的牛奶面包让我打白条收进来,我家仆人失业了,那可就真的没有牛奶面包了,就会饿死冻死。你这不是在逼着我侵犯我家仆人的人权么?

山姆:你手里不是有几万亿的美元嘛,你完全可以用这些美元来购买我家的牛奶面包及其它生活必需品,确保这些人的基本生活和再就业。

愚公:你有所不知啊,我家官员腐败,一旦有饥荒发生,我拿钱让他们去购买食物,结果他们都用美金去购买奢侈品了。即便是真的买回来食物,那也会分发给自己的亲属,在去黑市上高价转卖发家致富了,根本就分不到穷人手里。

山姆:那你可以将你手里的美元直接分发给那些失业人员和穷人啊,让他们自己决定去买哪些生活必需品。

愚公:这些人如果失业后,他们还是找不到工作啊。如果我给他们美元,我保证他们十有八九都会偷渡到你家,到你家去当难民打黑工,你家人就会有更多的人失业了。这是你想要见到的结果吗?

山姆:我上面提出的几个方案,完全都是对你家有利的事情,会帮你在我们的双方贸易中获得更多的利益。我搞不明白,你为何如此固执己见,就是非要干那种吃亏的买卖,非得白白将自己的产品廉价送给他人呢?难道你就是当今中国的活雷锋?毫不利己专门利人?

愚公:我提出的方案,对你更是有利啊。我更不明白了,我送你几千亿美金的产品供你家享用,只是让你打个白条,你为何就是不愿意要这种白白送上门的大便宜啊?难道你就是当今美国的活雷锋,是一心为他人谋利益?

山姆:既然我们无法通过谈判来解决我们的贸易争端,我只能对你实行贸易制裁。

愚公:你要如何制裁?

山姆:很容易。我只要提高你向我出口的产品的进口关税,你就无法繼續向我倾销。

愚公:你是成心不想要我白白送给你的3000亿美元的产品喽?

山姆:我宁愿不占你便宜,也要遵守商业道德和维护市场竞争规则,不允许你操控货币,更不允许你通过关税对你的仆人进行掠夺,你的这种操控货币、干扰自由贸易的行为,是对自由市场竞争机制的严重干扰和破坏,更是对贵国公民人权的严重践踏。如果大家都像你这样干扰市场机制,公平、自由的市场竞争机制就不复存在。

愚公:你一定要提高关税?

山姆:一定。

愚公:你一定要进行贸易战?

山姆:一定,除非你还有其它方案解决贸易逆差。

愚公:山姆大叔息怒。不就是解决贸易逆差问题嘛,我倒是有很多方式可以迅速消除贸易逆差。

山姆:说来听听。

愚公:你家大豆价格多少?

山姆:我要上网查查。

愚公:你不用查了。我的专家早就查过了,你家大豆年产量是1.2亿吨,价格是897美金一蒲式耳,约合24.3美金一吨。我每天进口你五百万吨大豆。

山姆:你是要每年要进口18亿吨大豆?可全球大豆的年产品也就是3.36亿吨啊,这还不够你的零头。你是成心耍我玩嘛。

愚公:是吗?不对啊,我的专家这么跟我说的。反正我每天进口你五百万吨大豆,每年从你家进口的大豆就是444亿美金。这就减少你的贸易逆差13%。我在只要列上类似的十种农产品,3370亿美金的贸易逆差就烟消云散了。

山姆:你也不想想,我上哪里去给你凑齐18亿吨的大豆啊。

愚公:这你就不是生意人了。你可以将你家几百年储藏的大豆都拿出来出口嘛,实在凑不齐,你也可以将你家的狗粮也拿来充抵大豆啊。我不在意是大豆还是狗粮,只要能餵牲口就行。

山姆:我搞不明白,你要那么多大豆干嘛,你消化得了吗?

愚公:你有所不知,咱家仆人就是喜欢这大豆,猪马牛羊更是喜欢这大豆当主食。其它的狗粮也行,都能调节畜生的口味。

山姆:这个生意不行,我真的凑不齐那么多大豆。你再想想其它办法。

愚公:没关系啦,一时凑不齐,就暂时欠着,继续打白条,反正我跟你不一样,不会对你逼债,更不会催你交货。你如果实在是不忍心占我便宜,就卖给我几个航母,隐形飞机也中,我可以付十倍地价钱。

山姆:航母和隐形飞机肯定是不行。你能不能买点我家其它的产品,最好是我家大量过剩的东西。

愚公:当然可以啦。我家人都說你家蓝天白云,就是因为空气新鲜。我可以大量进口你家的空气,你就用你家的空气来折抵黄豆,按体积折算,一升空气折抵一升大豆,我将你家空气全包圆了。

山姆:空气都是免费资源,你用24美金购买一立方空气,是不是太吃亏了?

愚公:不吃亏不行啊。如果你制裁我,我的美金就成废纸了,今后也再也赚不到美金了,我不是成了穷光蛋啦嘛。我用美金换回你家的空气,这至少可以让你老人家消消气,也可以让我对家中仆人有个交代,不是我不给他们买好东西,是你山姆大叔除了空气,就没有我们需要买的东西。

山姆:原以为你是最不懂生意的蠢货,卻原来你是老奸巨猾,为了自己的最大利益,你是不惜图财害命啊,你是頑固地堅持贯彻“宁与洋人,不与家奴”的中国式生意经啊。

刘刚
2019年3月12日