A Simple Model to Estimate the Expected Death Toll

https://jasmine-action.blogspot.com/2020/05/a-simple-model-to-estimate-final-death.html

Based on a math model, after 6 months, the total death toll for each country can be estimated as:

World           636,410
USA             238,363
Spain              37,704
Italy                46,054
UK                 57,514
France            41,219
Germany        11,228
Russia             24,240

Reported Cases and Deaths by Country, Territory, or Conveyance
posted on 5/5/2020 and by
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Let C# denote the Column with the specified number #. We have data for:
C2: Total Cases
C4: Total deaths
C6: Total recovery
C7: Active cases

The following equation is always true:
C2 = C4 + C6 + C7

Suppose there are no new cases in the future ( this assumption makes the estimation conservative), each of the people in C7 will eventually goes to either C4(death) or C6 (recovery).

Then after 6 months, C7=0; and all the active cases in C7 (2,225,786) will be either died or recovered.

The death ratio R can be estimated as:

R = C4 / (C4 + C6）

Let X4 denote the final death toll for each country, then we should have:

X4 = C4 + C7 * R = C4 * (1 + C7/(C6+C4)）

Let A denote the average death ratio, A can be estimated based on the whole world data.

A = Average of ( C4/(C4 + C6）) = 1/(1+1,240,705/258,027) = 17%;

Let Y4 is the following estimated death toll:

Y4 = C4 + C7 * A

Then, the final death toll can be estimated as (using Y4 and X4 seperately）:

Country           Y4                 X4

World           636,410         641,226
USA             238,363         327,760
Spain              37,704           35,588
Italy                46,054           54,515
UK                 57,514            NA
France            41,219            55,634
Germany        11,228              8,219
Russia             24,240           10,576

The death ratio estimated here could be decreasing with time, due to each country might test people with severe symptoms at the begining, thus the death ratio is high at the beginning. As time goes on, the death ratio may become stable.

President Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump just posted a tweet and stated that:

For the constant criticism from the Do Nothing Democrats and their Fake News partners, here is the newest chart on our great testing “miracle" compared to other countries. Dems and LameStream Media should be proud of the USA, instead of always ripping us down!



Link to the above twit:
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1257714716492722176

My responding twit:
https://twitter.com/LiuGang8964/status/1257902774219571201

President Trump needs to know that you cannot reduce the death toll by increasing the number of tests!

Gang Liu
May 5th, 2020